World Cup Finals Group Stages are over...how were your predictions?

After an exciting couple of weeks the first phase of the 2018 FIFA World Cup Finals is over.  The Group stage is now complete and we know which teams have progressed to the 'Round of 16' knockout stage.

We know that, like us, many of you readers have made your own predictions.

We also know that you enjoy seeing how well our predictions fared and that a few of you are eager to know how our opinions fared against the power of two dice and randomness.

So we now proudly present the results of the Soccer Mad Boffins (and our two random dice)  WC2018 Group Stage predictions.


GOAL TALLY

The first thing to mention is the number of goals scored so far is 122 in 48 games.  Dividing the goals by the number of games gives a figure of 2.542 goals per game, which sounds about what we might realistically expect - mainly 2-0 or 2-1 score-lines, with a few 0-0 bore draws here and there off-set by a few 4-0 thrashings here and there to provide the headlines.

So how does this compare with the score-lines that we predicted? Here are the results:


Dr Alex G. Gillett (AG): 136 goals (that's +14 than the actual total of 122)

Dr Kevin D. Tennent (KT): 95 goals (-8)

Random Dice: 178 (+56!!! That would have been quite some World Cup)


All well and good, but how did that play out in terms of how accurately we predicted the outcomes (who would win? Or would they draw?) or even the number of goals that each team scored in the various games?  How accurately did we predict the final group standings and which teams would progress to the next round? And for more fun, what exactly did the dice predict?


GAME & GROUP TABLE PREDICTIONS

Let's take a look at a group-by-group breakdown, and use the same points based competition as in our previous blog post about these predictions, in which each predictor (Alex, Kevin and Dice) could win up to 5 points per game, following the simple rule of:

Correct outcome (win / lose / draw)= 3 points

Correct 'Home' team goals = 1 pt

Correct 'Away' team goals = 1 pt

GROUP A

Game	Actual Score	AG	KT	Dice
Russia V Saudi Arabia	5-0	2 - 0	2 - 1	1 - 2
Uruguay v Egypt	1 - 0	2 - 1	1 - 0	3 - 0
Russia v Egypt	3 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 3
Uruguay V Saudi Arabia	1 - 0	3 - 0	3 - 0	0 - 6
Saudi Arabia V Egypt	2 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1	0 - 0
Uruguay v Russia	3 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 0
TOTAL POINTS		17	20	4

Actual Final Table	AG	KT	Dice
Uruguay	Uruguay	Uruguay	Saudi Arabia
Russia	Russia	Russia	Egypt
Saudi Arabia	Egypt	Egypt	Uruguay
Egypt	Saudi Arabia	Saudi Arabia	Russia

AG and KT both predicted same table, correctly identifying Uruguay and Russia as first and second place, respectively.

KT just edges it on points due to more accurately predicting goals scored by each team in particular games.

The random dice score a paltry 4 after wrongly predicting that Saudi Arabia would dominate the group undefeated, starting  and ending with a 2-1 win over Russia and 0 – 0 draw with Egypt,  via a 6-0 thrashing of Uruguay.  None of this actually happened, in fact Saudi Arabia began their campaign with a 5-0 drubbing at the hands of Russia, lost 0-1 to Uruguay, although they did beat Egypt 2-1. But they still finished the group in bottom place.

GROUP B

Game	Actual Score	AG	KT	Dice
Iran v Morocco	1-0	2 - 1	0 - 0	0 - 1
Portugal v Spain	3-3	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 – 0
Portugal v Morocco	1 - 0	3 - 0	2 - 0	4 - 5
Iran v Spain	0 - 1	1 - 3	0 - 2	2 -3
Iran V Portugal	1-1	0 - 3	0 - 2	0 - 3
Spain v Morocco	2 - 2	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 1
TOTAL POINTS		13	12	6

Actual Final Table	AG	KT	Dice
Spain	Portugal	Portugal	Morocco
Portugal	Spain	Spain	Portugal
Iran	Iran	Morocco	Spain
Morocco	Morocco	Iran	Iran

AG and KT both correctly favoured Spain and Portugal to qualify from Group B, although overestimated the powers of Cristiano Ronaldo, as the Portugese actually finished in 2^nd place behind Spain. 

AG did best from this Group scoring 13 points.

The dice again favoured a long-shot team to win the group – this time Morocco – although in reality they finished in last place, notching just 1 point (somewhat ironically from a 2-2 draw with Group B champs Spain).

GROUP C

Game	Actual Score	AG	KT	Dice
France v Australia	2-1	3 - 0	3 - 1	2 - 3
Denmark v Peru	1 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 2
France v Peru	1 - 0	3 - 0	2 - 0	6 - 0
Denmark v Australia	1 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 1	2 - 1
Australia v Peru	0 - 2	2 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 2
Denmark v France	0 - 0	1 - 2	1 - 1	3 - 0
TOTAL POINTS		11	19	7

Actual Final Table	AG	KT	Dice
France	France	France	Denmark
Denmark	Denmark	Denmark	Australia
Peru	Australia	Australia	France
Australia	Peru	Peru	Peru

KT confidently won this round by a clear 8 points over AG.  Once more the dice were way behind.

Both AG and KT correctly predicted the top two placings, whilst the dice opted for Australia to go through at the expense of France (actually based on the first game which featured both of these teams, the neutral observer might have been tempted to bet on that happening).

GROUP D

Game	Actual Score	AG	KT	Dice
Argentina v Iceland	1 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 0	0 - 0
Croatia v Nigeria	2- 0	2 - 1	1 - 2	0 - 4
Argentina  v Croatia	0 - 3	2 - 2	2 - 1	3 - 1
Nigeria V Iceland	2 - 0	0 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 2
Nigeria v Argentina	1 - 2	0 -3	1 - 2	0 - 5
Iceland v Croatia	1 - 2	2 - 2	2 - 0	0 - 5
TOTAL POINTS		9	6	10

Actual Final Table	AG	KT	Dice
Croatia	Argentina	Argentina	Argentina
Argentina	Croatia	Iceland	Nigeria
Nigeria	Iceland	Nigeria	Croatia
Iceland	Nigeria	Croatia	Iceland

Group D was where the dice’ random predictions bore fruit, scoring 10 points to beat AG and KT.

Interestingly only AG correctly identified that Croatia and Argentina would progress to the next round, as KT and the dice put too much faith in Iceland and Nigeria respectively. 

In truth, this was a very close group which went down to the final games.

GROUP E

Game	Actual Score	AG	KT	Dice
Serbia v Costa Rica	1 - 0	1 - 1	2 - 0	2 - 0
Brazil v Switzerland	1 - 1	3 - 0	1 - 0	5 - 6
Brazil v Costa Rica	2 - 0	3 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 2
Serbia v Switzerland	1 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 4
Switzerland v Costa Rica	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 5
Serbia v Brazil	0 - 2	0 - 4	0 - 2	2 - 0
TOTAL POINTS		17	17	8

Actual Final Table	AG	KT	Dice
Brazil	Brazil	Brazil	Costa Rica
Switzerland	Switzerland	Serbia	Switzerland
Serbia	Costa Rica	Switzerland	Serbia
Costa Rica	Serbia	Costa Rica	Brazil

Again, AG got the top two places right, as KT overlooked Switzerland but like AG tipped Brazil to win the group. 

In contrast, the dice had Brazil as bottom of the group – predicting a 5-6 defeat at the hands of the Swiss amongst other results that did not actually occur.

When we rolled the dice for the rest of the tournament, the dice ultimately predict Switzerland to win the World Cup, so watch this space.

GROUP F

Game	Actual Score	AG	KT	Dice
Mexico v Germany	1-0	1 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 3
Sweden v South Korea	1 - 0	3 - 0	2 - 0	1 - 2
South Korea v Mexico	1- 2	2 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 3
Germany v Sweden	2 - 1	2 - 1	3 - 2	3 - 3
Mexico v Sweden	0 - 3	2 - 1	0 - 1	1 - 0
South Korea v Germany	2 - 0	0 - 4	1 - 2	1 - 3
TOTAL POINTS		11	12	4

Actual Final Table	AG	KT	Dice
Sweden	Germany	Germany	Germany
Mexico	Mexico	Sweden	Mexico
South Korea	Sweden	Mexico	South Korea
Germany	South Korea	South Korea	Sweden

Group F totally threw all involved.  EVEN THE RANDOM DICE PREDICTED GERMANY WOULD WIN THE GROUP.  But after a lackluster showing, the Germans finished in last place meaning that nobody did particularly well here, KT scraping it by a single point over AG, with the dice coming last by scoring a paltry 4 points. 

However, both AG and the dice noticed Mexico’s potential. In fact the dice think Mexico will reach the final and come second place to Switzerland. Only time will tell…

GROUP G

Game	Actual Score	AG	KT	Dice
Belgium v Panama	3 - 0	3 - 0	2 - 0	3 - 1
Tunisia v England	1 - 2	1 - 2	0 - 0	6 - 2
Belgium v Tunisia	5 - 2	4 - 0	2 - 1	0 - 3
England v Panama	6 - 1	3 - 0	1 - 0	3 - 0
England v  Belgium	0 - 1	1 - 3	0 - 2	5 - 3
Panama v Tunisia	1 - 2	0 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 3
TOTAL POINTS		22	15	11

Actual Final Table	AG	KT	Dice
Belgium	Belgium	Belgium	Tunisia
England	England	England	England
Tunisia	Tunisia	Tunisia	Belgium
Panama	Panama	Panama	Panama

Both AG and KT correctly predicted the final placings of Group G, although AG’s exact predictions of the score-lines for two games (Belgium v Panama, and Tunisia v England) helped him to best in this round, with 22 points.

Panama made a valiant effort in their first World Cup Finals but predictably finished bottom place despite a good effort.

GROUP H

Game	Actual Score	AG	KT	Dice
Columbia v Japan	1 - 2	2 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 2
Poland v Senegal	1 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 2	0 -0
Japan v Senegal	2 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 1	2 - 1
Poland v Colombia	0 - 3	1 - 1	0 -1	1 - 0
Senegal v Columbia	0 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 0	3 - 4
Japan v Poland	0 - 1	1 - 2	0 - 1	0 -2
TOTAL POINTS		11	16	12

Actual Final Table	AG	KT	Dice
Colombia	Colombia	Senegal	Poland
Japan	Poland	Colombia	Japan
Senegal	Senegal	Poland	Colombia
Poland	Japan	Japan	Senegal

Both AG and KT underestimated the Japan team, wrongly predicting 4^th place for the team which actually finished as runner-up in Group H.  However, both correctly calculated Columbia’s qualification to the next round. 

Interestingly the dice got Japan right but pitched Poland for top prize, which was unfortunate because they cam 4^th.

Still though, the dice beat AG on points for Group H, but KT’s superior predictive skills meat that he took the Group with 16 points.

IN CONCLUSION

So, the results are in and the points have been added together we can reveal our 2018 FIFA World Cup Finals Group Stage predictions 'league table' looks like this:

First Place: Dr Kevin D. Tennent (117 points from 48 games/240 possible points)

Second Place: Dr Alex G. Gillett (111 points)

Third Place: Random Dice (62 points)

Dr Tennent celebrates his Gold Medal for winning First Place

So, it is fair to say that our expertise is proven by the fact that we are more accurate predictors of World Cup football than two large wooden dice rolled randomly!

Furthermore, we are not the only experts to try to predict the World Cup, and some have tried to do it in an even more sophisticated (although perhaps not more accurate) way.  The Financial Times reported that Goldman Sachs updated their computer assisted statistics driven 'soccermeter' to to take into account goal differences up to June 26, and predicted that England 'might' reach the final and play Brazil, beating Mexico and Spain on the path to the World Cup Final!  Meanwhile another sophisticated 'machine learning' technology simulated the outcome of the tournament 100,000 times using the bookmaker's odds.  They agreed with us - that a Brazil-Germany final was most likely, though Spain were strongly favored in their model!  Needless to say, this demonstrates that the most sophisticated Artificial Intelligence is fallible when it comes to soccer! 




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