Predicting the 2022 FIFA World Cup: A report by the Soccer Mad Boffins

After a busy few moths we are delighted to publish our report analysing our preductions for the 2022 FIFA World Cup Finals in Qatar.

1.0      INTRODUCTION

This analysis is based on predictions for the knockout stages of the FIFA 2022 World Cup Finals, which took place between 20 Nov  - 18 Dec 2022. The objective of this report was to have a bit of fun and to see how accurately we could predict the tournament.  Two academics (Dr Alex Gillett and Dr Kevin D Tennent, both editors of Soccermadboffins website) recorded their predictions at each stage (Group, Round of 16, Quarter-Final, Semi-Final and then Final as well as third place play-off) just prior to each stage, once the competing teams were known.

As a contrast with ‘chance’ a third set of predictions was undertaken at the same time by rolling 2x6 sided dice. A roll of 1-3 meant that was how many goals were scored, 4-5 = nil, whilst a roll of 6 meant roll again and whatever number 1-6 is the total number of goals (this was to allow for the possibility of particularly high scoring games). The idea of the third set of predictions by rolling two dice was for comparison, to see if we could perform better than random(ish) chance. We acknowledge that the six-sided dice and our own parametres somewhat limits the ‘random’ score but it gives an approximation, and it is the same method we have used for previous tournaments so it allows comparison.

We thus followed the ‘Analysis Z’ method of our previous tournament production reports, which predicted results and goals based only on actual fixtures.

Results reflect the unpredictable nature of the 2022 edition of the FIFA World Cup: that both Alex nor Kevin achieved overall scores with less than 50% accuracy, and in fact the dice were the most accurate predictor in the semi-final and quarter-final rounds.  Best overall (game outcomes + exact home and away goals scored) was Alex (43%) followed by Kevin (32%) and the dice (31%).

This exercise was undertaken for fun, please do not attempt to use it as informative for gambling practise!

 

 2.0      FINDINGS

Firstly, we predicted the group stage, the first phase of the tournament comprising eight (8) groups, A-H. 

The groups each contained four teams and the top two finishers in each group (50%) automatically progressed to the next stage, the ‘Quarter Final’, whilst the two lowest ranked from each group (also 50%) were eliminated from the tournament.

Thereafter, knockout Stages involved teams that qualified from the Group Stages:

• Round of 16 (16 teams)
• Quarter Finals (8 teams)
• Semi-Finals (4 teams)
• Third-place playoff (2 teams)
• The Final (2 teams)

 

2.1      Group Stage

Here’s how we calculated the points, a maximum of 5 points per game were up for grabs (or 180 points overall in this stage)

·       Correct outcome: 3 points (overall)

·       Home goals: 1 pt ( overall)

·       Away goals; 1 pt ( overall)

As our dice could only roll a maximum of ‘6’ we excluded the Spain goals from their game versus Costa Rica in which they scored 7.

According to the analysis in the table, Alex had best overall accuracy (44%) for predicting outcome + goals.

Fixture	Actual	Alex	Kevin	Dice
Qatar v Ecuador	0 - 2	1 - 1	1 - 0	2 - 0
Senegal v Netherlands	0 - 2	2 - 2	1 - 3	0 - 0
Qatar v Senegal	1 - 3	0 - 3	1 - 0	0 - 3
Netherlands v Ecuador	1 - 1	2 - 0	4 - 0	2 - 0
Ecuador v Senegal	1 - 2	0 - 3	1 - 2	1 - 2
Netherlands v Qatar	2 - 0	4 - 0	0 - 0	3 - 0
England v IR Iran	6 - 2	2 - 0	1 - 0	0 - 1
USA v Wales	1 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 3	1 - 3
Wales v IR Iran	0 - 2	2 - 1	1 - 0	1 - 0
England v USA	0 - 0	3 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 2
Wales v England	0 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
IR Iran v USA	0 - 1	1 - 2	2 - 1	3 - 4
Argentina v Saudi Arabia	1 - 2	3 - 0	4 - 0	0 - 1
Mexico v Poland	0 - 0	2 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 0
Poland v Saudi Arabia	2 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	4 - 6
Argentina v Mexico	2 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 1	0 - 0
Poland v Argentina	0 - 2	0 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 0
Saudi Arabia v Mexico	1 - 2	1 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 3
Denmark v Tunisia	0 - 0	2 - 0	2 - 0	0 - 1
France v Australia	4 - 1	2 - 1	2 - 1	2 – 0
Tunisia v Australia	0 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	3 – 0
France v Denmark	2 - 1	1 - 0	2 - 2	0 - 3
Australia v Denmark	1 - 0	0 - 2	0 - 1	0 - 0
Tunisia v France	1 - 0	1 - 1	0 - 2	2 - 0
Germany v Japan	1 - 2	2 - 1	3 - 1	1 - 3
Spain v Costa Rica	7 - 0	3 - 0	4 - 0	3 - 2
Japan v Costa Rica	0 - 1	2 - 0	2 - 1	1 - 2
Spain v Germany	1 - 1	2 - 2	3 - 2	3 - 3
Japan v Spain	2 - 1	1 - 2	1 - 1	2 - 3
Costa Rica v Germany	2 - 4	0 - 5	1 - 4	0 - 3
Morocco v Croatia	0 - 0	1 - 3	1 - 2	3 - 2
Belgium v Canada	1 - 0	3 - 0	5 - 0	1 - 1
Belgium v Morocco	0 - 2	2 - 0	3 - 1	3 - 1
Croatia v Canada	4 - 1	3 - 0	1 - 1	1 - 0
Croatia v Belgium	0 - 0	2 - 2	2 - 3	1 - 0
Canada v Morocco	1 - 2	1 - 1	0 - 1	2 - 1
Switzerland v Cameroon	1 - 0	1 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 3
Brazil v Serbia	2 - 0	2 - 0	3 - 1	3 - 5
Cameroon v Serbia	3 - 3	2 - 0	1 - 1	0 - 3
Brazil v Switzerland	1 - 0	3 - 1	2 - 0	0 - 0
Serbia v Switzerland	2 - 3	1 - 2	0 - 0	0 - 0
Cameroon v Brazil	1 - 0	0 - 3	2 - 3	2 - 3
Uruguay v South Korea	0 - 0	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 - 3
Portugal v Ghana	3 - 2	3 - 0	3 - 0	4 - 0
South Korea v Ghana	2 - 3	0 - 3	2 - 0	3 - 0
Portugal v Uruguay	2 - 0	2 - 0	3 - 1	3 - 3
Ghana v Uruguay	0 - 2	1 - 2	1 - 0	1 - 3
South Korea v Portugal	2 - 1	0 - 2	1 - 4	0 - 0

 

TOTAL POINTS

239* (100%)

105 (44%)

77 (32%)

67 (28%)

Table A showing group stage results and points according to AnalysIs Z

*excludes Spain goals for vs costa rica

 

 

2.2      Knockout Stages

We then predicted scores and outcomes for the Round-of-Sixteen, Quarter-Final, Semi-Final and the Final.

The scores used for purpose of this exercise are those before penalties (90 minutes + stoppage + extra time) although we included penalties too for fun, where we thought that they would happen.

Again, Alex performed best in this round with a credible 55%.  The dice did worst (23%) their prediction that South Korea would beat Brazil 1-3 was brave but futile.

Round-of-Sixteen

	Actual Result	AG	KT	Dice
Netherlands v USA	3 - 1	1 – 1 (4-3 pens)	2 – 2 (5-4 pens)	2 v 0
Argentina v Australia	2 - 1	2 - 1	1 – 1  (4-5 pens)	5 v 3
France v Poland	3 - 1	3 - 0	1 – 1 (5-4 pens)	1 v 2
England v Senegal	3 - 0	3 - 0	3 - 1	1 v 1 (3 v ? pens)
Japan v Croatia	1 – 1 (1-3 pens)	1 - 2	1 - 2	3 v 0
Brazil v S Korea	4 - 1	3 - 0	3 - 0	1 v 3
Morocco v Spain	0 – 0 (3 – 0 pens)	2 – 2 (3-4 pens)	1 – 1 (4-5 pens)	3 v 1
Portugal v Switzerland	6 - 1	2 - 0	3 - 0	4 v 0
Outcome (before pens)	24	15	12	9
Goals Home	8	4	2	0
Goals Away	8	3	2	0
TOTAL POINTS	40 (100%)	22 (55%)	16 (40%)	0 (23%)

Table B showing results and predictions for the Round-of-Sixteen

 

Quarter Final

Although leading up until this point, Alex had a terrible round (17%) whilst the dice proved a more than decent predictor (65%). Who could have guessed Morocco would beat Portugal?

	Actual Result	AG	KT	Dice
Croatia v Brazil	1 – 1 (4 – 2 pens)	1-2	2-2 (4-5 pens)	0 – 0 (4 – 3 pens)
Netherlands v Argentina	2 – 2 (3 – 4 pens)	2-1	3-2	0 – 0 (3-4 pens)
Morocco v Portugal	1 - 0	0-2	1-3	2 - 0
England v France	1 - 2	2-1	3-2	3 - 6
Outcome	12 (100%)	0	3	12
Goals Home	4 (100%)	2	1	0
Goals Away	4 (100%)	0	2	1
TOTAL POINTS	20 (100%)	2 (17%)	6 (30%)	13 (65%)

Table C showing results and predictions for the Quarter Final

 

Semi-Final

At this point there were just two games featuring four teams, so showing % is a bit misleading if comparing accuracy to earlier rounds. However, we show them as part of our overall analysis of comparison when considering predictive power across the tournament. 

Kevin and Alex were both mediocre (40% each) and the dice again did well, notching 60% accuracy thanks to an exact prediction of the France v Morocco score, and that Argentina would net 3 v Croatia.

	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
Argentina v Croatia	3 - 0	1 - 2	2-3	3 - 4
France v Morocco	2 - 0	3 - 0	2-1	2 - 0
Outcome	6 (100%)	3	3	3
Goals Home	2 (100%)	0	1	2
Goals Away	2 (100%)	1	0	1
TOTAL POINTS	10 (100%)	4 (40%)	4 (40%)	6 (60%)

Table D showing results and predictions for the Semi Final

Third Place Play-off

This was Kevin’s round, with a flawless100% accuracy.

	Actual Result	AG	KT	Dice
Croatia v Morocco	2 - 1	2 - 0	2-1	1 - 0
Outcome	3 (100%)	3	3	3
Goals Home	1 (100%)	1	1	0
Goals Away	1 (100%)	0	1	0
TOTAL POINTS	5 (100%)	4 (80%)	5 (100%)	3 (60%)

Table E showing results and predictions for the Round-of-Sixteen

 

Final

With all three participants opting for a France victory (and who wouldn’t, given Argentina’s unconvincing start to the tournament) this was a low scoring round. Lionel Messi proved everyone’s undoing.

	Actual Result	AG	KT	Dice
Argentina v France	3 – 3 (4 – 2 pens)	1 - 2	2-3	1-2
Outcome	3 (100%)	0	0	0
Goals Home	1 (100%)	0	0	0
Goals Away	1 (100%)	0	1	0
TOTAL POINTS	5 (100%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	0 (0%)

Table F showing results and predictions for the Final

 

 

3.0      DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION

3.1 Summary of Predictions

Viewing the tournament in its entirety it is possible to rate the overall predictive power of Alex, Kevin and the dice by compiling all of the games and predictions into a single set of calculations, by adding together scores at each round.

 

Total number of games =	Alex	Kevin	Dice
Outcome (pts possible) 144 + 24 + 12 + 6 + 3 + 3 = 192	78 + 15 + 0 + 3 + 3+ 0 = 99	48 + 12 + 3 + 3 + 3 + 0 = 69	51 + 9 + 12 + 3 + 3 + 0 = 78
Goals Home (pts possible) 47 + 8 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 63	11 + 4 +  2  + 0 + 1 + 0 = 18	9+2 + 1 + 1+ 1 + 0 = 14	7 + 0 + 0 + 2 + 0 + 0 = 9
Goals Away (pts possible) 48 + 8 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 64	16 + 3 + 0 + 1 +  0 + 0 = 20	13 + 2 +2 +0 +1 +1 = 19	10 + 0 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 = 12
192+ 63 + 64 = 319 TOTAL POINTS (320 pts possible)	99 + 18 + 20 = 137 (43%)	69 + 14 + 19 = 102 (32%)	78 + 9 + 12 = 99 (31%)

Table E showing overall tournament prediction accuracy according to Analysis Z

 

From the table we see that Alex wins, with Kevin in second place but only marginally more accurate than the dice. No participant performed well, and the only true winner was football which proved as exciting, unpredictable, and free-scoring as ever.