UEFA Women's Euros 2025: Group Stages Predictions & Reflections

 GROUP STAGES

 With the Group stages now complete, we can see that Alex’s prediction that Spain will beat Germany to win the tournament, and Kevin’s that Sweden will beat Germany, are still very much alive.

However, the random dice rolls’ projection of a Netherlands v Wales final (0-3 Netherlands on penalties) has been consigned to the reject bin.

So, let’s break down how we all did, group by group. To make things interesting we have awarded a point for each correctly predicted finishing position in each group.

 

Group A

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Norway	Switzerland	Iceland	Norway
2	Switzerland	Finland	Switzerland	Finland
3	Finland	Iceland	Norway	Iceland
4	Iceland	Norway	Finland	Switzerland
Points (4 maximum)	-	0	1	1

 

Only the dice could foresee plucky Norway’s triumph in this Group. Both Alex and Kevin did not even think that they would progress. Overall, this was the trickiest Group to predict with Kevin and the dice being most accurate with 1 point out of a possible 4 (or 25%).

 

Group B

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Spain	Spain	Spain	Portugal
2	Italy	Italy	Italy	Italy
3	Belgium	Portugal	Portugal	Belgium
4	Portugal	Belgium	Belgium	Spain
Points	-	2	2	2

 

Alex and Kevin both accurately predicted the top two but got the bottom two in the wrong order. The dice picked up points for being accurate about Italy and Belgium’s outcomes but were comically wide of the mark in terms of top and bottom. However, all three predictors picked up 2 points, or 50% of what was available.

 

Group C

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Sweden	Germany	Sweden	Poland
2	Germany	Sweden	Germany	Sweden
3	Poland	Poland	Denmark	Denmark
4	Denmark	Denmark	Poland	Germany
Points	-	2	2	0

 

AG was correct about the bottom two but got the order of the top two the wrong wat round. For Kevin, the reverse was true. Two points apiece.  The Dice had a miserable Group with zero points accumulated.

 

Group D

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	France	France	England	Netherlands
2	England	Netherlands	France	Wales
3	Netherlands	England	Netherlands	France
4	Wales	Wales	Wales	England
Points	-	2	2	0

 

AG should have had more faith in England’s chances! But was accurately pessimistic about Wales. Both he and Kevin picked up another two points, but once again it was poor form for the dice.

 

 

Total Points

Kevin tops the leader board for correct placings with 7 points (44% accuracy). Alex was correct about a third of the time with 6 points (38% accuracy). Random chance was the weakest predictor, the dice scoring just 3 points overall (19% accuracy).

AG	KT	Dice
6 (38%)	7 (44%)	3 (19%)

 

We can of course look at this in other ways, and looking simply at who predicted the top two teams to qualify from each group, but not necessarily in what order, can be done if we award a point for each team correctly identified as progressing front the Group stages.

With four groups and the top two finishers qualifying from each, we have a maximum of 8 points up for grabs, the actual points are given with percentage accuracy in brackets, Kevin’s clairvoyance is all the more impressive and Alex scores impressively too:

 

AG	KT	Dice
6 (75%)	7 (86%)	2 (25%)

 

 

QUARTER FINALS

 We now turn our attention to the Quarter Finals, for which we made a fresh set of predictions now that we know exactly which teams will face which. We will publish more information at a later date, but suffice to say that both Alex and Kevin have England to progress to the semi-finals when they play Sweden this Thursday 17^th July at 8pm.

 

 

Please note that the predictions on this blog are for academic purposes only and should not be used to inform gambling or gambling decisions.

Women's 2025 Euros are here

It is here! The Women's Euros 2025 kicked off on week ago, on Wednesday 2nd July,  with opening defeats for both holders England and geographic neighbours, Wales.

As usual we made our own predictions, and rolled a dice for the entire tournament. This is how we each think that the Final will play out:

Alex: Germany 2 - 2 Spain, (6-7 penalties)

Kevin: Sweden 2 - 2 Germany (5-4 penalties)

Dice: Wales 0 - 0 Netherlands (0-3 penalties)

Here is how we each predict the GB teams will fare:

Alex: England - Group Stages (finish 3rd, fail to progress) / Wales - Group Stages (finish 4th, fail to progress)

Kevin: England lose in Quarter Final to Germany (2-2 normal play, 4-5 penalties / Wales - Group Stages (finish 4th, fail to progress)

Dice - England - Group Stages (finish 4th, fail to progress) / Wales - Runners Up (see above)

But how will it play out? Will 2022's hosts and champions England 'bring it home' again? Or will Spain who beat England in the final of the 2023 World Cup sustain its dominance? Will a long-shot dark horse team emerge to surprise us  - such as the dice prediction of Wales finishing Runners-Up?

Both England and Wales will play this evening, and we wish both well in their respective games.  They will face each other in a show-down on Sunday 13th July.

Please note that the above predictions are for fun only and are not advice for betting on the outcomes of these or any football games. The authors cannot  accept any liability for the performance or outcomes.

It Didn't Come Home (....but it has taken a holiday to Spain....)

And that was that, alas football hasn't come home (still) but it was a very close thing.

England had been many people's favourites to win Euro 2024, and did themselves proud, winnning their group, reaching the Final and being level on goals until the 86th minute.

Congratulations though to Spain, who just couldn't be contained, and were worthy winners.

At the outset of the tournament,:

Alex predicted England to reach the Quarter-Finals, where they would be beaten by Italy, 0-1 after extra time, and a Final ending Portugal 1 - 2 France.

Kevin predicted England to lose 1-3 to Spain after extra-time in the Quarter Finals, and Portugal to beat Croatia by 2-0 in the Final.

The dice suggest that England would go out by 3-1 to Switzerland in the Round of 16, with Croatia beating Ukraine 3-1 in the Final.

Once the tournament was underway and the outcome of the Group Stages was known, we adjusted our predictions after each round, based on who was still in the competition.  Our suggestions for the Final were as follows;

Alex and Kevin both predicted 2 - 2 after 90 minutes, with England to score a winning goal in extra time, final score 2-3 and England's young lions to lift the trophy.

The dice predicted 3-3 after normal time,  but finishing 4-6 to England, AET.

It was great optimism but sadly was not to be, the England men unable to replicate the success of the women, who won their respective Euros in 2022.

Just as sad was the news that Gareth Southgate resigned as England Manager in the aftermath. The most successful boss during our own lifetimes, he turned the national side around from being in the tabkoid press for all the wrong reasons, to being in there for most ly the righgt reasons, reaching the latter stages of the FIFA World Cup and two succesive UEFA European Championship Finals.

The BBC summarise it best:

"Tournament record: Fourth at 2018 World Cup, runners-up at Euro 2020, quarter-final at 2022 World Cup, runners-up at Euro 2024.

Overall record: Played 102, won 61, drawn 24, lost 17, scored 213, conceded 72, win ratio 59.8%.

Gareth Southgate took temporary charge of the England side in September 2016, and was unbeaten in four games, earning the role on a permanent basis.

For the first time since 1990, England's men's team reached the semi-finals of a World Cup in 2018, losing to Croatia after extra time. They went even further at the European Championship in 2021, but lost to Italy on penalties in the Wembley final.

A quarter-final loss to France in the 2022 World Cup followed. Southgate contemplated leaving the role after that tournament but stayed on, taking England to the final at Euro 2024, where they lost to Spain."

The last few weeks have also been eventful in British politics, a General Election being held on July 4th resulted in a change of government similar to that which happened shortly after the Euros in 1996, with a long-term Conservative Government thoroughly beaten by a relatively centrist Labour Party.

You might remember that in the lead up to the election we compared the most popular national parties manifestos on the basis of sport policy.  The question is, will the new government deliver on any of this? Only time will tell.

After the Semi-Final, the new Prime Minister, Kier Starmer quipped "England are unbeaten with a Labour Government" echoing Harold Wilson in 1966 who David Goldblatt cites as saying words to the effect of 'England only wins the World Cup with a Labour Government'.  

Alas, Starmer's words did not age well as within a few days he had equaled the Conservative Party record for losing 1 UEFA Euro Final. Perhaps the FIFA World Cup 2026 will provide Starmer's chance for a Harold Wilson moment? 

And will the Lionesses retain their trophy next year, in the UEFA Womens Euros 2025, which they won with a Conservative government in limbo following Boris Johnson's shock resignation 'with immediate effect' just three weeks earlier?

Thank you our readers for following the Soccer Mad Boffins UEFA Euros 2024 blogging and roll on our next sporting mega-event.....The Olympic Games, the football Group Stages beginning on Wednesday 24th July.

UEFA Euro 2024 semi finals are here

 

The semi-finals of the UEFA Euro 2024 tournament are upon us. Lasr night Spain beat France 2-1 to book their place in Sunday's Final.  Sixteen year old Lamine Lamal scored one of Spain's goals, thus becoming the tournament's youngest ever goalscorer at just sixteen years of age (younger than our university students!)

Tonight England face Netherlands to decide the other place.

Critics have bemoaned England's boring approach as unconvincing. But that misses the point; show-boat football , or the up n' at 'em hit it and hope favoured by our nation's previous semi-skilled teams, achieved absolutely nothing. 

Whereas Southgate's 'grey men of Europe' tactics have served England well, winning the group and inching into the semi-final. There are no WAGS, no 'dentist chair' nightclub debauchery, no petulance on the field of play. Just a risk averse 'gets the job done' workmanlike dedication to playing football.

Only time will tell how England perform on the night, but maybe just maybe, the can do this.

As usual, here are our predictions for the outcome of the semi-final games, compared to those of random dice-rolls:

	AG	KT	DICE
Spain v France	2 -2 (2-2 AET) (3 - 4 pens)	1 v 1 (3-1 AET)	0 v 1
Netherlands v England	2 v 2 (2v2 AET) (3 V 4 pens)	1 v 1 (2 - 2 AET,  5-4 pens)	1 v 1 (1 v 2AET)

 

Kevin was the only player to correctly predict a Spain win, but did not see that happening inside of 90 minutes.  Alex knew that Spain would net twice, but had more faith in the French.

Alex think that England might just win this one but that it will be close, England once again breaking their penalty shoot-out jinx. Kevin has less faith, predicting Netherlands to just do it on penalties.   The dice? They've decided England to clinch it with an extra-time winner.  

What do YOU think?

As usual these predictions are presented just for fun and we do not encourage gambling.

Euro 2024 Quarter Finals

Lo and behold!  The Quarter Finals of the UEFA European Championships 2024 kick off on Friday 5th July.

Here our our predictions:

	AG	KT	Dice
Spain v Germany	0-0 0-2 AET	2v2 5v4 pens	4 v 3
Portugal v France	2-3	2v1	5 v 2
England v Switzerland	2v1	1v1 2v2 AET, 4v3 pens	0 v 0,  1 v 1 AET, 5 v 3 Pens
Netherlands v Turkey	2v3	2v0	0 v 0, 0 v 3 AET

Alex tips Germany, France, England and Turkey to progress

Kevin chooses Spain, Portugal, England (just!) and Netherlands

The dice favour Spain, Portugal, England and Turkey.

As usual, we present this info only for fun and do not encourage anyone to use these predictions to inform gambling decisions.

Celebrating Ten Years of Soccer Mad Boffins with a Euro 2024 Tournament Prediction

It was June 2014 when we founded this blog. The launch coincided not only with our FIFA scholarship to research the business and administrative history of the 1966 FIFA World Cup, but also with the start of that years FIFA World Cup, the 20th edition of the tournament hosted in Brazil.

We followed the tournament with various comments and fun posts and who could predict that we would still be going strong in 2024!?

Speaking of predictions, the first time that we attempted to predict the scores and outcomes of a football tournament was the following edition, Russia 2018.  Which leads us nicely to the present.

Today, Friday 14th June, is the start of the UEFA European Championship. Of the British teams, Scotland face Germany on the opening evening, whilst England play Serbia on Sunday 16th.

BBC pundits generally favour England or France to win the cup which can you read by.following this link.

Sky Sports report betting odds also favour the cross-channel rivals but show that Germany and Portugal are close behind, see here.

The NY Times in collaboration with The Athletic has a more statistical approach, showing Germany as having a squad 'built to win', Portugal as 'having worked the goalkeeeper more than any other team' and Belgium's Lokaku as being a top striker.  England, they sneer dismissively, will be heavily reliant on Harry Kane's goals. See here.

Being free thinkers, we make our own predictions, as well as randomly rolling a dice as a control test.  Using our football knowledge and gut instinct, we have some interesting ideas:

On the group games for Scotland and England:

Scotland

Game	AG	KT	Dice
Germany v Scotland	0-2	1-1	0-3
Scotland v Switzerland	3-2	0-1	1-4
Scotland v Hungary	1-0	2-1	3-0

 

England

Game	AG	KT	Dice
Serbia v England	0-3	1-1	1-0
Denmark v England	0-2	0-2	2-6
England v Slovenia	5-0	1-1	2-0

 

Regarding tournament progress, both Alex and Kevin see the Brits as qualifying from their respective groups, itself a huge achievement for the Scottish bravehearts, but are less confident in England than the professional pundits or bookmakers, predicting a Quarter Final exit.  The dice rolled that both nations will crash out in the Round of 16.

Progress

Team	AG	KT	Dice
Scotland	R16	R16	R16
England	QF	QF	R16

The UK General Election will be held just days after the round of 16. As we reported in our 2021 chapter on sport and populism Harold Wilson lost the 1970 General Election just days after England crashed out of the 1970 World Cup to Germany. Rishi Sunak must be pretty confident that England will progress to the Quarter Finals too!

In terms of who will win the tournament:

Winners

Alex (AG) : France (winners), Portugal (runner-up)

Kevin (KT): Portugal (winners), Croatia (runner-up)

Dice: Croatia (winners), Ukraine (runner-up)

Over to YOU

Who do YOU think will win? How far do YOU think that England or Scotland can go? Please leave us a comment below.

PS: We hope that you enjoy the Euro 2024 tournament and in celebrating 2014-2024 of Soccer Mad Boffins.  Please read the above article for fun, we offer no advice nor encouragement for betting/gambling on the tournament and do this prediction exercise solely for entertainment and to see if we can be more accurate than the pundits!