With the FIFA World Cup 2022 in Qatar just two days away the big question dominating conversations in the pubs, staff rooms, canteens and internet forums is 'who do you think will win it?'
It's a great question and opinions are split. Most football fans will have their opinions.
The BBC has reported that statistical experts at Opta/Stats Perform have crunched the numbers and run the algorithms to predict that Brazil has the best chance to win (15.8% chance), followed closely by Argentina (12.6), France (12.2), Spain (9.1), and England (8.7).
You don't really need a PhD in computer science to come to those conclusions, a simple glance at the FIFA World Rankings places its top 5 as being Brazil, Belgium, Argentina, France, and England. So the only real surprise is their altogether omission of Belgium and maybe also the insertion of Spain as 4th favourite (FIFA rank them in 7th place).
A glance around the likes of BBC and Sky Sports pundit teams suggests that the ex-footballer's and TV presenters choices also show a trend towards Brazil, Argentina and France.
As usual we here at SoccerMadBoffins have also made our own predictions and to show if we're more accurate that random chance we have also rolled the dice to see what the fickle finger of fate points at.
Also as usual, we'll produce a more detailed summary of all our working out in due course, but for the sake of brevity here are our predictions compared to those of the maths wizards at Opta/Stats Perform, once again begging the question: Algorithm, human brain, or random chance?
Alex's predictions are boringly similar to Opta but re-ordered. Has he been too slavish to FIFA rankings?
Kevin favours Germany and also predicts a good run for England. Is he a visionary or way off?
As usual, most interestingly are the dice, which favour British minnows Wales to win the final 6-0 against USA, and for Germany to win third-place playoff against Portugal 6-1.
This leads to our next question, what are the chances for our 'Home Nation' sides England and Wales, both in Group B?
England
Opta predicts England have a 63% chance to top the Group, 17% chance of reaching the final and 8.7% chance to win it, as we mentioned above this makes them the fifth most likely team to win.
Alex also predicts that England will top Group B, before losing to Netherlands on penalties in the Round of 16 (sound familiar?)
Kevin sees England as finishing in third place, losing to Germany on penalties in the semi-final (sound even more familiar?). He also thinks that the Three Lions will top Group B
The Dice however predict England to finish bottom of Group B suffering defeat to IR Iran, and scraping draws with USA and Wales.
Wales
Opta predicts Wales has a 13.9% chance to win Group B, 1.8% chance to reach the final and 0.6% chance to win the tournament.
Alex thinks that Wales will finish Group B as runners-up, before losing to Senegal in the Round of 16.
Kevin believes Wales could finish Group B in second place, before losing to Netherlands in the Round of 16.
The dice meanwhile will win Group B, beat Senegal in the Round of 16 (winning on penalties after a thrilling 6-6 draw), beat Saudi Arabia 4-3 in the Quarter Finals, Germany 3-2 in the Semi-Finals, and win the Cup by beating USA by 6-0 in the Final. Ultimately this hinges on Wales having world beating fire-power to overcome defensive deficiency. The big question is: Do they have a new Ian Rush?
As usual, all predictions are personal opinions and are just for fun. We make no claims or suggestions for any betting purposes. Please do not allow our ideas to inform any betting decisions.
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