Prediction Results!

Its all over and Spain are crowned the new World Champions!

In our previous post we predicted that Brazil would triumph, but failed to spot the rise of Norway as serious contenders.  Alex however was nearly correct in terms of the last four, but did not predict that England would finish third and Brazil would lose to Norway.  The dice predicted Egypt as champions, but while Egypt did well in the tournament this did not come to pass - but it did correctly predict that France would take fourth place!

For brevity, ignoring the rounds of 32 and 16 we pick up our prediction journey in the quarter finals. 

Match	Kevin	Alex	Dice	Actual Score
France v Morocco	1-1, 2-0 AET	2-1	1-0	2-0
Spain v Belgium	1-0	2-2, 1-1 (AET), 6-5 (pens)	0-0, 5-3 (AET)	2-1
Norway v England	1-1, 0-2 (AET)	1-2	3-5	1-1, 0-1 (AET)
Argentina v Switzerland	2-1	4-0	0-2	1-1, 2-0 (AET)

We got the outcome of France v Morocco right overall, and the dice predicted it too! We were similarly correct about Spain v Belgium although the dice predicted fireworks in extra time after a full 0-0 draw. For Norway v England the dice also predicted a thriller in normal time, and we were not very optimistic about Switzerland's chances, but the dice thought they might triumph! 

Match	Kevin	Alex	Dice	Actual Score
France v Spain	2-2, 0-1 (AET)	1-1, 1-0 (AET)	3-1	0-2
England v Argentina	1-1, 3-1 (AET)	1-1, 0-0, 5-4 (pens)	1-2	1-2

Our semi-final predictions were most significant because the dice correctly predicted the England v Argentina outcome.  England of course lost, despite the narrowness of the margins and us predicting an England win.

Match	Kevin	Alex	Dice	Actual Score
Spain v Argentina	2-1	1-2	2-3	1-0
France v England	1-1, 0-1 (AET)	2-0	6-0	4-6

The final was interesting.  Alex and the dice were optimistic about Argentina's chances, but Kevin correctly predicted that Spain would prevail after only letting in one goal all tournament.  We failed to predict a thriller in the bronze match thinking it would be a contractual obligation with a tight scoreline and few open goals, but it turned out to the match of the tournament!  The dice similarly predicted a one sided-win for France, but at least with lots of goals.

The biggest ever World Cup will be remebered for some good football, England almost getting to the final but at least succesfully scooping the consolation prize against the heavily favoured French team. The Spanish possession finally prevailed against the cynical Argentinian tactics.  

The presentation of the World Cup was more explicitly marketing focused than before.  Relevant developments here included the 'hydration breaks' which were perhaps timed to allow for TV advert breaks.  This was at least better than the 1970s NASL which cut away to advert breaks mid-action, but did mean that the game was de-facto broken into quarters, something that was feared but failed to materialise for the 1994 edition.  Another more subtle addition was the 'star-player cam' which seemed to involve a camera focusing on identified key but not always impacful players, often cutting to them for their reaction after incidents.  The extended interval at half-time in the final to accomodate a pop concert was a further departure from usual practice. We await the next FIFA World Cup to see if any of these ideas will be repeated or developed!

New Article Published in Business History: Association Football and the administrators who made it, c. 1863-1914

Photo: Lord Kinnaird, used under creative commons from wikipedia

The prestigious journal Business History has today published online our article co-authored with sociologist Prof Alan Tomlinson:

TENNENT, K.D., Gillett, A. and Tomlinson, A., 2026. Association Football and the administrators who made it, c. 1863-1914. Business History. https://doi.org/10.1080/00076791.2026.2685019

"The game of ‘association football’ or ‘soccer’ emerged as an English amateur pastime, to metamorphize into the ‘world’s game’. In this historiographical contribution we consider the formative history of football by highlighting the entrepreneurial role of the amateur administrators who imported the logic of bureaucratic organization from other sectors, identifying their influence on the entities which govern and organize the sport. We demonstrate that the emergence of administrative structures was key to the development of professional sport in England and beyond."

Walking Football : Impact!

On Saturday 13th June, Alex made his debut for York City FC Foundation's Walking Football Team. 

The invitation to okay was a direct result of our University of York Festival of Ideas appearance with Rob Nichols the week before.  Real academic impact!

The occasion was a football festival tournament for mental health hosted by York City FC on its five-a-side courts in the shadow of its home ground, the LNER Community Stadium.

Alex was a substitute for York City FC (reds) in all games, debuting in a 1-1 draw with Leeds United (and getting a few shots on target if not in the net) and then participating in a 2-0 win over York City FC (black), and a narrow 0-1 defeat to Easingwold Town.

This qualified them as second place to play in the Grand Final against Group Champions Easingwold Town in a much closer repeat fixture.  Alex came close to breaking the 0-0 deadlock when he took the ball half way up the pitch and put in a high powered effort which hit the post, but would have been the goal of his career had it been mere inches to the right.  Whether or not it was actually intended as a cross is subject to debate!

Alas, it was not to be, 0-0 after normal time and onto penalties which Easingwold won narrowly 2-3.

So, tangible academic impact: A very credible runners-up for York City FC Foundation (reds) and an exciting adventure in a wonderful event to celebrate football and help mental health.

The photograph at the top of this post shows Alex in his York City shirt and was created using the Panini football stickers app.

United 2026 FIFA World Cup is Here! Tournament Predictions are Here!

The 2026 FIFA World Cupo kicks-off TODAY, co-hosted by Canada, USA and Mexico.

In this blog post we look back at our existing published research on USA world Cups, before statibg our predictions as to who will win it and what fate has in store for the British teams and also for the co-hosting nations.

We then compare with the predictions of colleagues from some of our mathematical colleagues.

Reflections

Way back in 2018 we were asked to share our thoughts on the then newly announced 2026 FIFA World Cup for Canada-Mexico-USA, a tournament to be co-hosted across North America.

Our piece, linked here, shared our projections about organising the tournament and likely scenarios, such as for urban transport, boosterism and so on. We also reflected on the making use of existing stadiums rather than building many new stadiums from scratch for the tournament.

Relatedly, those of you who follow our academic publications may also be aware of our articles on the USA 94 edition of the FIFA World Cup:

Gillett, A.G. and Tennent, K.D., 2022. Hybrid goals: Institutional complexity and ‘legacy’in a global sporting mega-event. Public Management Review, 24(3), pp.372-397.

Tennent, K.D. and Gillett, A.G., 2020. Opportunities for all the Team: Entrepreneurship and the 1966 and 1994 Soccer World Cups. In Sport and Entrepreneurship (pp. 145-166). Routledge.

We have also very recently revised and updated our chapter 'a brief history of the world cup as a business' in the book 'The Business of the World Cup'. The first edition, which appeared in 2022 in time for the Qatar tournament, was very popular. So, were delighted to be asked to participate in a new edition to coincide with the 2026 World Cup:

Gillett, A.G. and Tennent, K.D., 2027. A Brief History of the FIFA World Cup as a Business. In The Business of the FIFA World Cup (pp. 4-24). Routledge.

 

Predictions

But what of the on-pitch activities? Well, as our readers know, we like to do tournament predictions and wherever possible compare to other 'expert' academics and pundits. As usual, both of us predicted results for the entire tournament and also rolled dice for a bit of fun to see if we are more accurate than random chance!  Results are:

Name	Winners	Runner-up	Third Place	Fourth Place
Kevin	Brazil	Croatia	Netherlands	Argentina
Alex	Brazil	Spain	Argentina	France
Dice	Egypt	Mexico	South Africa	France

Alex predicts that Brazil will beat current Holders Spain by 2-1 to lift the Cup for the sixth time, but the first time since 2002.  This would fit a pattern; Brazil have never waited longer than five tournaments to win it, so they are due that victory!  

He predicts that England will reach the Round of 16 where they will be beaten 0-2 by Spain on their way to the Final. Meanwhile, of the British Home Nations, Scotland will progress out of the Group Stage for the first time in history, but face 2-3 defeat to Netherlands in the Round of 32.

Of the three host nations; Canada and Mexico will both finish second in their respective groups before Mexico knock-out Canada 2-0 in the Round of 32, then Mexico lose 2-3 to Netherlands in the Round o f 16. USA will win Group D before losing 1-2 to Ecuador in the Round of 32. 

Kevin also sees Scotland's bravehearts losing to Netherlands in the Round of 32, but predicts a penalty shoot-out will decide that after a 1-1 draw is not settled by extra-time.  England, he predicts, will lose 2-3 to Brazil in the Quarter Finals.  Brazil will ultimately win the Cup, he proclaims, suggesting a 1-1 draw followed by a Brazil winning goal in extra-time.

His outlook for the co-hosts sees Canada falling at the Round of 32, losing 1-2 to Czech Republic after finshing second place in the Group. USA will win its Group , beat Iraq and Korea Republic in the knockout stages, before crashing out 0-3 to Croatia in the Quarter-Final.  Mexico will win every Group stage game but exit in the Round of 16 at the hands of England.

The dice, as wild as ever, predict Egypt to play co-hosts Mexico in the Final, 3-3 after 90 minutes followed by a further 1 goal for Mexico and 5 for Egypt in the most exciting period of extra-time in the entire history of World Cups.  Scotland will win Group C before losing to Netherlands in the Round of 32, whilst England will go out in the Round of 16 courtesy of a 4-5 defeat at the hands of South Africa. Other than Mexico, of the co-hosts, both Canada and USA will falter at the Group Stage.

Compare to Colleagues

The Corridor of Uncertainty is a podcast at the intersection of maths & sport, hosted by Dr Jess Hargreaves & Dr Rich Bingham, two mathematicians at the University of York. In their episode dated 9th June 2026 they calculate, using their own mathematical formula, the liklihood of each participating team winning the competition. According to their number crunching, Spain are most likely to lift the Cup, followed by Argentina, France and then England.

They also invited a special guest, Prof James Reade (Uni of Reading), who introduced his own set of figures to offer an alternative prediction: Favouring Argentina, then Spain, France and Portugal as most likely to take top honours. His prediction for England/ Fifth most likely to win.

The outcomes then are very much open to debate. What is certain is that the next few weeks will provide good opportunity for more blog posts and podcasts!

As usual we will try to update our predictions at each stage when it is know who has qualified.

Please note that the above predictions are for fun only and are not advice for betting on the outcomes of these or any football games. The authors cannot  accept any liability for the performance or outcomes.

Report: York Festival of Ideas 2026

 

On Saturday 6th June we had the great pleasure to host North East subculture hero Robert Nicholls (lead singer of Shrug, editor of England's longest-running football club fanzine 'Fly Me to The Moon' and internet message board, and sport heritage/history/archaeology practitioner to name just a few things from his varied career).

The audience was treated to Rob's knowlegeable (and at times amusing) take on football stadiums, heritage projects, and the real and virtual spaces and places that help to define football.

The 30 minute presentation was followed by a further 30 minutes of audience questions, which led to some finer details and humorous anecdotes, and afterwards attendees had the opportunity to take home samples of Rob's football zine.

This event was back-to-back with another presentation by our Uni of York colleague Jess Hargreaves, all about the use of statistics in modern football. Two very different angles on 'the people's game' but together made for a highly interesting couple of hours.

Thank you to Rob and to the Festival Team for excellent organisation and hospitality. See you again!

Football's Physical and Virtual Spaces

We are once again proud to announce our involvement with the York Festival of Ideas, this year with guest speaker Rob Nichols.

From the archaeology of football grounds involving community engagement to giving walking tours of historic football sites, to editing and hosting Middlesbrough FCs fanzine and internet chat forum, Robert Nichols reflects on his work championing the people’s game.

Join Robert in conversation with the University of York’s Soccer-Mad Boffins Alex Gillett and Kevin Tennent, as they examine football’s places and spaces and look ahead to this year’s FIFA World Cup.

• Date and time:Saturday 6 June 2026, 3.15pm to 4.15pm
• In-person only:
  Law and Sociology Building, Campus East, University of York (Map)

As our events are usually very well attended we strongly recommend reserve a place in advance by booking your ticket here. 

Foundations of Managing British Olympics: Institutions through Time featured on SBS Spotlight Blog

We have done a post on the book on the School for Business and Society's Spotlight blog!

Topics highlighted include how the 18th Century 'Grand Tour' inspired a revitalisation of the concept of the Olympic Games alongside the new educational ideology of muscular Christianity, which infused the public schools of 19th century England. We consider how this inspired the organsiation of sport, which then borrowed its legitimacy from the 19th century World's Fairs.  At first the Olympics were somewhat ad-hoc and ran parallel to them, but of course in time they would come to overtake them.

So to inspire your viewing of the Milan Cortina winter games which start on Friday, take a look at our post!

Access it here - https://blogs.york.ac.uk/sbs-spotlight/2026/02/03/foundations-of-managing-british-olympics-institutions-through-time/