United 2026 FIFA World Cup is Here! Tournament Predictions are Here!

The 2026 FIFA World Cupo kicks-off TODAY, co-hosted by Canada, USA and Mexico.

In this blog post we look back at our existing published research on USA world Cups, before statibg our predictions as to who will win it and what fate has in store for the British teams and also for the co-hosting nations.

We then compare with the predictions of colleagues from some of our mathematical colleagues.

Reflections

Way back in 2018 we were asked to share our thoughts on the then newly announced 2026 FIFA World Cup for Canada-Mexico-USA, a tournament to be co-hosted across North America.

Our piece, linked here, shared our projections about organising the tournament and likely scenarios, such as for urban transport, boosterism and so on. We also reflected on the making use of existing stadiums rather than building many new stadiums from scratch for the tournament.

Relatedly, those of you who follow our academic publications may also be aware of our articles on the USA 94 edition of the FIFA World Cup:

Gillett, A.G. and Tennent, K.D., 2022. Hybrid goals: Institutional complexity and ‘legacy’in a global sporting mega-event. Public Management Review, 24(3), pp.372-397.

Tennent, K.D. and Gillett, A.G., 2020. Opportunities for all the Team: Entrepreneurship and the 1966 and 1994 Soccer World Cups. In Sport and Entrepreneurship (pp. 145-166). Routledge.

We have also very recently revised and updated our chapter 'a brief history of the world cup as a business' in the book 'The Business of the World Cup'. The first edition, which appeared in 2022 in time for the Qatar tournament, was very popular. So, were delighted to be asked to participate in a new edition to coincide with the 2026 World Cup:

Gillett, A.G. and Tennent, K.D., 2027. A Brief History of the FIFA World Cup as a Business. In The Business of the FIFA World Cup (pp. 4-24). Routledge.

 

Predictions

But what of the on-pitch activities? Well, as our readers know, we like to do tournament predictions and wherever possible compare to other 'expert' academics and pundits. As usual, both of us predicted results for the entire tournament and also rolled dice for a bit of fun to see if we are more accurate than random chance!  Results are:

Name	Winners	Runner-up	Third Place	Fourth Place
Kevin	Brazil	Croatia	Netherlands	Argentina
Alex	Brazil	Spain	Argentina	France
Dice	Egypt	Mexico	South Africa	France

Alex predicts that Brazil will beat current Holders Spain by 2-1 to lift the Cup for the sixth time, but the first time since 2002.  This would fit a pattern; Brazil have never waited longer than five tournaments to win it, so they are due that victory!  

He predicts that England will reach the Round of 16 where they will be beaten 0-2 by Spain on their way to the Final. Meanwhile, of the British Home Nations, Scotland will progress out of the Group Stage for the first time in history, but face 2-3 defeat to Netherlands in the Round of 32.

Of the three host nations; Canada and Mexico will both finish second in their respective groups before Mexico knock-out Canada 2-0 in the Round of 32, then Mexico lose 2-3 to Netherlands in the Round o f 16. USA will win Group D before losing 1-2 to Ecuador in the Round of 32. 

Kevin also sees Scotland's bravehearts losing to Netherlands in the Round of 32, but predicts a penalty shoot-out will decide that after a 1-1 draw is not settled by extra-time.  England, he predicts, will lose 2-3 to Brazil in the Quarter Finals.  Brazil will ultimately win the Cup, he proclaims, suggesting a 1-1 draw followed by a Brazil winning goal in extra-time.

His outlook for the co-hosts sees Canada falling at the Round of 32, losing 1-2 to Czech Republic after finshing second place in the Group. USA will win its Group , beat Iraq and Korea Republic in the knockout stages, before crashing out 0-3 to Croatia in the Quarter-Final.  Mexico will win every Group stage game but exit in the Round of 16 at the hands of England.

The dice, as wild as ever, predict Egypt to play co-hosts Mexico in the Final, 3-3 after 90 minutes followed by a further 1 goal for Mexico and 5 for Egypt in the most exciting period of extra-time in the entire history of World Cups.  Scotland will win Group C before losing to Netherlands in the Round of 32, whilst England will go out in the Round of 16 courtesy of a 4-5 defeat at the hands of South Africa. Other than Mexico, of the co-hosts, both Canada and USA will falter at the Group Stage.

Compare to Colleagues

The Corridor of Uncertainty is a podcast at the intersection of maths & sport, hosted by Dr Jess Hargreaves & Dr Rich Bingham, two mathematicians at the University of York. In their episode dated 9th June 2026 they calculate, using their own mathematical formula, the liklihood of each participating team winning the competition. According to their number crunching, Spain are most likely to lift the Cup, followed by Argentina, France and then England.

They also invited a special guest, Prof James Reade (Uni of Reading), who introduced his own set of figures to offer an alternative prediction: Favouring Argentina, then Spain, France and Portugal as most likely to take top honours. His prediction for England/ Fifth most likely to win.

The outcomes then are very much open to debate. What is certain is that the next few weeks will provide good opportunity for more blog posts and podcasts!

As usual we will try to update our predictions at each stage when it is know who has qualified.

Please note that the above predictions are for fun only and are not advice for betting on the outcomes of these or any football games. The authors cannot  accept any liability for the performance or outcomes.

Report: York Festival of Ideas 2026

 

On Saturday 6th June we had the great pleasure to host North East subculture hero Robert Nicholls (lead singer of Shrug, editor of England's longest-running football club fanzine 'Fly Me to The Moon' and internet message board, and sport heritage/history/archaeology practitioner to name just a few things from his varied career).

The audience was treated to Rob's knowlegeable (and at times amusing) take on football stadiums, heritage projects, and the real and virtual spaces and places that help to define football.

The 30 minute presentation was followed by a further 30 minutes of audience questions, which led to some finer details and humorous anecdotes, and afterwards attendees had the opportunity to take home samples of Rob's football zine.

This event was back-to-back with another presentation by our Uni of York colleague Jess Hargreaves, all about the use of statistics in modern football. Two very different angles on 'the people's game' but together made for a highly interesting couple of hours.

Thank you to Rob and to the Festival Team for excellent organisation and hospitality. See you again!

Football's Physical and Virtual Spaces

We are once again proud to announce our involvement with the York Festival of Ideas, this year with guest speaker Rob Nichols.

From the archaeology of football grounds involving community engagement to giving walking tours of historic football sites, to editing and hosting Middlesbrough FCs fanzine and internet chat forum, Robert Nichols reflects on his work championing the people’s game.

Join Robert in conversation with the University of York’s Soccer-Mad Boffins Alex Gillett and Kevin Tennent, as they examine football’s places and spaces and look ahead to this year’s FIFA World Cup.

• Date and time:Saturday 6 June 2026, 3.15pm to 4.15pm
• In-person only:
  Law and Sociology Building, Campus East, University of York (Map)

As our events are usually very well attended we strongly recommend reserve a place in advance by booking your ticket here. 

Foundations of Managing British Olympics: Institutions through Time featured on SBS Spotlight Blog

We have done a post on the book on the School for Business and Society's Spotlight blog!

Topics highlighted include how the 18th Century 'Grand Tour' inspired a revitalisation of the concept of the Olympic Games alongside the new educational ideology of muscular Christianity, which infused the public schools of 19th century England. We consider how this inspired the organsiation of sport, which then borrowed its legitimacy from the 19th century World's Fairs.  At first the Olympics were somewhat ad-hoc and ran parallel to them, but of course in time they would come to overtake them.

So to inspire your viewing of the Milan Cortina winter games which start on Friday, take a look at our post!

Access it here - https://blogs.york.ac.uk/sbs-spotlight/2026/02/03/foundations-of-managing-british-olympics-institutions-through-time/

New Book Out Now: Foundations of Managing British Olympics

 

It has been some time coming, but the first of our long promised books on the Olympics is finally here!

Foundations of Managing British Olympics: Institutions Through Time charts how the British contributed to the development of the Olympic Games as an institution, and how they did this through the development of competitive sport through the nineteenth and early twentieth century.

This intriguing new volume tells the story of how the first modern Olympic revival happened and the role that British sporting movements and administrators played in its success. The book takes the reader from the earliest Olympic revivals in England to London being awarded the hosting rights for the London 1908 games.

To do this we drew on a broad range of research materials - among them archives belonging to the IOC, the British Olympic Associaton, FIFA, the National Football Museum, the English Amateur Atheltics Association, the collections of Lord Desborough, and numerous newspapers.

This volume will be of considerable interest to research academics working on aspects of 19th and early 20th century British, European and World History, including sport, social, business, management, economic and political history.

It is out from today in print direct from Emerald or your favourite bookseller - or also as an eBook or ePub.  Ideal for Christmas, or if you work or study at a universiity perhaps consider getting your academic library to subscribe to the electronic version.

This book is the latest in our series Frontiers of Management History which focuses on new and innovative histories. If you have a book idea connected to the history of business, management or organizations then please get in touch with us.

This is not the last we will do on this topic - watch this space for future releases!

England Women's Champions

England's Lionesses have retained the UEFA Euros Championship! Congratulations!

At Soccer Mad Boffins we have of course followed the action closely and can now reveal our predictions, and those of random dice rolls, with what actually happened.

Quarter Finals

All three predictors tipped England to go through, with a similar accuracy for Spain. 

Only the dice saw Italy emerge victorious, but it was only Alex and Kevin who correctly picked Germany to beat France.

	AG	KT	DICE
Norway v Italy   1 v 2	2 v 1	2 v 0	3 v 3  (2 v 5)
Sweden v England   2 v 2 (2 v 3)	1 v 2	1 v 3	0 v 3
Spain v Switzerland   2 v 0	3 v 1	2 v 1	1 v 0
France v Germany   1 v 1 (5 v 6)	1 v 2	1 v1 (4 v 5)	2 v2 (3 v 1)

Semi-Finals

Alex was the only soccer mad boffin to back the Lionesses even the correct score, Kevin predicting Italy stealing a dramatic penalty shoot-out, whereas the dice gave it to Italy within 90 minutes. 

	AG	KT	Dice
England v Italy  2 v 1	2 v 1	1 v 1 (3-4 pens)	0 V 1
Germany v Spain  0 v 1	1 v 3	2 v 1	0 V 3

 Results: Alex got both outcomes correct and even the England v Italy scoreline. The dice got one outcome. Kevin was sadly way off

FINAL

The tables were turned in the Final, Alex thinking a straight-forward convincing win for Spain, as did the dice. Kevin righted his lack of faith in the previous round with a bold five goal thriller with England netting three in normal time. The reality was of course somewhere in between.  This one went to Kevin, and to England.

	AG	KT	Dice
England v  Spain  1 v 1 (3 v 1 penalties)	1 v 3	3 v 2	0 v 3

UEFA Women's Euros 2025: Group Stages Predictions & Reflections

 GROUP STAGES

 With the Group stages now complete, we can see that Alex’s prediction that Spain will beat Germany to win the tournament, and Kevin’s that Sweden will beat Germany, are still very much alive.

However, the random dice rolls’ projection of a Netherlands v Wales final (0-3 Netherlands on penalties) has been consigned to the reject bin.

So, let’s break down how we all did, group by group. To make things interesting we have awarded a point for each correctly predicted finishing position in each group.

 

Group A

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Norway	Switzerland	Iceland	Norway
2	Switzerland	Finland	Switzerland	Finland
3	Finland	Iceland	Norway	Iceland
4	Iceland	Norway	Finland	Switzerland
Points (4 maximum)	-	0	1	1

 

Only the dice could foresee plucky Norway’s triumph in this Group. Both Alex and Kevin did not even think that they would progress. Overall, this was the trickiest Group to predict with Kevin and the dice being most accurate with 1 point out of a possible 4 (or 25%).

 

Group B

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Spain	Spain	Spain	Portugal
2	Italy	Italy	Italy	Italy
3	Belgium	Portugal	Portugal	Belgium
4	Portugal	Belgium	Belgium	Spain
Points	-	2	2	2

 

Alex and Kevin both accurately predicted the top two but got the bottom two in the wrong order. The dice picked up points for being accurate about Italy and Belgium’s outcomes but were comically wide of the mark in terms of top and bottom. However, all three predictors picked up 2 points, or 50% of what was available.

 

Group C

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Sweden	Germany	Sweden	Poland
2	Germany	Sweden	Germany	Sweden
3	Poland	Poland	Denmark	Denmark
4	Denmark	Denmark	Poland	Germany
Points	-	2	2	0

 

AG was correct about the bottom two but got the order of the top two the wrong wat round. For Kevin, the reverse was true. Two points apiece.  The Dice had a miserable Group with zero points accumulated.

 

Group D

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	France	France	England	Netherlands
2	England	Netherlands	France	Wales
3	Netherlands	England	Netherlands	France
4	Wales	Wales	Wales	England
Points	-	2	2	0

 

AG should have had more faith in England’s chances! But was accurately pessimistic about Wales. Both he and Kevin picked up another two points, but once again it was poor form for the dice.

 

 

Total Points

Kevin tops the leader board for correct placings with 7 points (44% accuracy). Alex was correct about a third of the time with 6 points (38% accuracy). Random chance was the weakest predictor, the dice scoring just 3 points overall (19% accuracy).

AG	KT	Dice
6 (38%)	7 (44%)	3 (19%)

 

We can of course look at this in other ways, and looking simply at who predicted the top two teams to qualify from each group, but not necessarily in what order, can be done if we award a point for each team correctly identified as progressing front the Group stages.

With four groups and the top two finishers qualifying from each, we have a maximum of 8 points up for grabs, the actual points are given with percentage accuracy in brackets, Kevin’s clairvoyance is all the more impressive and Alex scores impressively too:

 

AG	KT	Dice
6 (75%)	7 (86%)	2 (25%)

 

 

QUARTER FINALS

 We now turn our attention to the Quarter Finals, for which we made a fresh set of predictions now that we know exactly which teams will face which. We will publish more information at a later date, but suffice to say that both Alex and Kevin have England to progress to the semi-finals when they play Sweden this Thursday 17^th July at 8pm.

 

 

Please note that the predictions on this blog are for academic purposes only and should not be used to inform gambling or gambling decisions.