Paris 2024 is here!

It feels like Euro 2024 with disappointment for England has only just gone - but another global sporting megaevent is here already - the Paris 2024 Summer Olympic games. With 329 events in 32 sports there will be plenty of action to keep us going! The men's and women's football competitions are no different. Although football has its own World Cups for men and women (as often covered by us here!) the Olympics still play an important role. 

The men's competition is really a sort of global 'age group' tournament, with teams allowed to field only three players aged over 23, while in women's football the competition is open to players of all ages, making it a secondary world cup! 

As usual we sat down before kick off to predict the tournaments ourselves, and also randomly, with a dice. 

 

Men 

Alex predicted that Spain will repeat their Euros triumph - ultimately with a 4-2 victory over North African hopefuls Morocco. He predicts Argentina will win the bronze medal triumphing 3-0 ove Japan in the third place match. Morocco won their controversial game against Argentina yesterday thanks to a VAR decision so their rise through the tournament looks like it is on! 

Kevin predicted that Argentina would see gold instead, with their younger generation looking to repeat the World Cup triumph of their elders. Spain would win silver after a tight but exciting final, losing 2-3. Egypt would enjoy a favorable tournament and win bronze, narrowly over Ukraine, winning 0-1 in extra time in the third place match. 

The dice as ever predicted the most interesting outcome - Japan will be champions, after a 6-6 thriller with Iraq, a team famously tipped by sporting economists Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski to eventually rise to world dominance. Argentina would have to content themselves with the Bronze, after beating Egypt 0-1. 

Women 

Great Britain failed to qualify for the Olympics after England, who were representing them, finished as runners up in their Nations League group in December 2023 - but there is still plenty of action to enjoy, as we give other nations a chance at Olympic glory! 

Alex predicted that the victors will be France - in spectacular fashion, triumphing 5-4 over a Brazil in a spectacular final match, ending on extra time. Expectations on the home side will certainly be high. 

World champions Spain would win Bronze after a 1-2 third place match, with former serial World Champions Germany missing out. 

Kevin predicted that the Brazilians, whose performance has gradually improved in recent years, would triumph - with a 3-2 win over Germany in the final. The French would have to content themselves with Bronze, in a 2-0 win over Australia - so often the fate of host nations who do well in a tournament only to be pipped at the post!

On the dice, Columbia were predicted to be champions, triumphing 2-0 over Australia in the final. Canada would get bronze, beating Nigeria 1-0. 

So now we know what we think will happen over to reality-  who's going to win the two gold medals on offer?

FIFA Women's World Cup 2019 - predictions

With the FIFA Women’s World Cup almost upon us, we decided to repeat the fun of last year’s Men’s tournament and map out three scenarios: Kevin’s predictions, Alex’s predictions, and the predictions of a dice roll.

A quick explanation as to how the dice roll scores were calculated

-        If rolling a 1, 2, or 3 that’s the score,

-        If rolling 4 or 5 it counted as ‘nil’, and;

-        Rolling a 6 meant roll again and use whatever number comes up (so the upper limit of normal time is 6 goals but it is fairly unlikely to come up).

So what are the predictions?

As usual at the end of the Group Stage we will show all of our predictions and those of the dice vs the reality.  If we can find them, we will also try to compare with any algorithm type predictions as proposed by statisticians working for business consultancies and universities.

We cannot all get every prediction right, so we will then try to do another set of predictions based on who actually gets out of the Group Stages and as the knock-out rounds unfold.

But in the meantime we had a go at predicting the entire tournament…

Random Dice Rolls…

The dice interestingly predict England to get as far as the Round of 16 before losing 0 – 1 China

Scotland meanwhile are set to lose 1 – 0 to Jamaica in Quarter Finals using this method of prediction.

To get there, Jamaica will surprisingly beat USA 3 – 0 in the Round of 16, and eventually reach the final before losing to South Korea 10 – 9 after penalties

Winner: South Korea

Alex

Predicts England to finish in fourth place, losing 1-3 to Brazil in third place play-off.

Predicts Scotland to reach the Round of 16 where they lose 1-2 to Canada.

Hosts France are predicted to knock out the USA by 2-0 in the Quarter-Finals, and England 2-1 in the semi-finals, ultimately winning the tournament having beaten China 2-1 in a hard fought final.

Winner: France

Kevin

England will finish in 4^th place, ultimately losing 0-2 to a strong Japanese team whom he predicts will be the surprise package of the tournament, and will eventually finish 3^rd in the world. 

To get there, Japan will graduate Group D in second place (pipping Scotland to the post – the Scots taking 3^rd place in the Group and not progressing) then Holland 2-1 in the Round of 16.  A controversial 4-1 drubbing of Brasil sees them glide comfortably through the Quarter Finals before running out of steam 1-2 at the hands of Germany in the Semis.

Kevin believes the USA will knock-out another Womens’ soccer superpower China in the round of 16, (2-2 after normal time and then 7-6 to USA after penalties), then they will lose 2-3 to hosts France in the Quarter Finals.

Kevin predicts France to ultimately reach the final, where they will lose 0-2 to Germany.

Winner: Germany

Rio 2016 kicks off!

Great Britain's Gold Winning side of 1912

August is upon us, and the next Summer Olympic games, in Rio de Janiero, Brazil, officially starts on Friday 5th August with the Opening Ceremony.  The Summer Olympiad now contains 28 sports, with numerous sub-disciplines contained within, but an often overlooked yet historically important part of the games is the soccer tournament, held simultaneously for both men and women.  The soccer tournament will start on Wednesday 3rd August with Women's first round games between Sweden and South Africa, and Canada and Australia.

The men's tournament, officially first held at White City Stadium at the London 1908 Games is historically important because it was the first truly international soccer tournament to take place between teams representing individual nations, except for the British Home Championship, which had been contested since 1884. The 1908 tournament saw Great Britain beat Denmark 2-0 to claim the gold medal - the Netherlands, Sweden and France also took part in the competition, France even entering a 'B' team in an era before participation rules were sharpened up.  The tournament became the de-facto World Championship until the establishment of the FIFA World Cup in 1930.  Soccer missed the 1932 Los Angeles Olympics but still remained a presence at later Games despite the IOC and FIFA not seeing eye-to-eye for many years about the detail of soccer's participation, soccer being a professional sport in most countries yet Olympic athletes being strictly amateurs.  A compromise was eventually reached for the men's event that each team was limited to only three players per team with an age of more than 23, disqualifying most 'star' players from taking part.  As a result the women's tournament, which was only established as late as 1996, now in reality takes precedence, with current World Cup holders and five times gold medal winners the USA favourites to maintain their grip on the event.

Given the England women's good performance in the 2015 tournament in Canada, the non-inclusion of a Great Britain side at Rio 2016 due to the four British Football Association's inability to compromise on an Olympic team due to the fear of compromising their separate FIFA memberships seems particularly unfortunate. Despite being the inaugural gold winners and wining gold again in Stockholm in 1912, Great Britain has generally not taken part in the Olympic tournament or only sent strictly amateur teams for much of the tournament's existence. The main notable exceptions have been when London has hosted the games, in 1948 and 2012; in 1948 Great Britain, managed by Matt Busby, reached the semi-finals. In 2012 the men predictably plunged out in the quarter-finals on penalties to South Korea, the women suffering a similar fate being beaten 0-2 by Canada also in the quarter-finals.  Mexico and the USA would be respective champions.

The 2016 tournament promises to be an exciting one, especially in terms of the USA's grip on the women's game - we look forward to it!