Prediction Results!

Its all over and Spain are crowned the new World Champions!

In our previous post we predicted that Brazil would triumph, but failed to spot the rise of Norway as serious contenders.  Alex however was nearly correct in terms of the last four, but did not predict that England would finish third and Brazil would lose to Norway.  The dice predicted Egypt as champions, but while Egypt did well in the tournament this did not come to pass - but it did correctly predict that France would take fourth place!

For brevity, ignoring the rounds of 32 and 16 we pick up our prediction journey in the quarter finals. 

Match	Kevin	Alex	Dice	Actual Score
France v Morocco	1-1, 2-0 AET	2-1	1-0	2-0
Spain v Belgium	1-0	2-2, 1-1 (AET), 6-5 (pens)	0-0, 5-3 (AET)	2-1
Norway v England	1-1, 0-2 (AET)	1-2	3-5	1-1, 0-1 (AET)
Argentina v Switzerland	2-1	4-0	0-2	1-1, 2-0 (AET)

We got the outcome of France v Morocco right overall, and the dice predicted it too! We were similarly correct about Spain v Belgium although the dice predicted fireworks in extra time after a full 0-0 draw. For Norway v England the dice also predicted a thriller in normal time, and we were not very optimistic about Switzerland's chances, but the dice thought they might triumph! 

Match	Kevin	Alex	Dice	Actual Score
France v Spain	2-2, 0-1 (AET)	1-1, 1-0 (AET)	3-1	0-2
England v Argentina	1-1, 3-1 (AET)	1-1, 0-0, 5-4 (pens)	1-2	1-2

Our semi-final predictions were most significant because the dice correctly predicted the England v Argentina outcome.  England of course lost, despite the narrowness of the margins and us predicting an England win.

Match	Kevin	Alex	Dice	Actual Score
Spain v Argentina	2-1	1-2	2-3	1-0
France v England	1-1, 0-1 (AET)	2-0	6-0	4-6

The final was interesting.  Alex and the dice were optimistic about Argentina's chances, but Kevin correctly predicted that Spain would prevail after only letting in one goal all tournament.  We failed to predict a thriller in the bronze match thinking it would be a contractual obligation with a tight scoreline and few open goals, but it turned out to the match of the tournament!  The dice similarly predicted a one sided-win for France, but at least with lots of goals.

The biggest ever World Cup will be remebered for some good football, England almost getting to the final but at least succesfully scooping the consolation prize against the heavily favoured French team. The Spanish possession finally prevailed against the cynical Argentinian tactics.  

The presentation of the World Cup was more explicitly marketing focused than before.  Relevant developments here included the 'hydration breaks' which were perhaps timed to allow for TV advert breaks.  This was at least better than the 1970s NASL which cut away to advert breaks mid-action, but did mean that the game was de-facto broken into quarters, something that was feared but failed to materialise for the 1994 edition.  Another more subtle addition was the 'star-player cam' which seemed to involve a camera focusing on identified key but not always impacful players, often cutting to them for their reaction after incidents.  The extended interval at half-time in the final to accomodate a pop concert was a further departure from usual practice. We await the next FIFA World Cup to see if any of these ideas will be repeated or developed!

New Book Out Now: Foundations of Managing British Olympics

 

It has been some time coming, but the first of our long promised books on the Olympics is finally here!

Foundations of Managing British Olympics: Institutions Through Time charts how the British contributed to the development of the Olympic Games as an institution, and how they did this through the development of competitive sport through the nineteenth and early twentieth century.

This intriguing new volume tells the story of how the first modern Olympic revival happened and the role that British sporting movements and administrators played in its success. The book takes the reader from the earliest Olympic revivals in England to London being awarded the hosting rights for the London 1908 games.

To do this we drew on a broad range of research materials - among them archives belonging to the IOC, the British Olympic Associaton, FIFA, the National Football Museum, the English Amateur Atheltics Association, the collections of Lord Desborough, and numerous newspapers.

This volume will be of considerable interest to research academics working on aspects of 19th and early 20th century British, European and World History, including sport, social, business, management, economic and political history.

It is out from today in print direct from Emerald or your favourite bookseller - or also as an eBook or ePub.  Ideal for Christmas, or if you work or study at a universiity perhaps consider getting your academic library to subscribe to the electronic version.

This book is the latest in our series Frontiers of Management History which focuses on new and innovative histories. If you have a book idea connected to the history of business, management or organizations then please get in touch with us.

This is not the last we will do on this topic - watch this space for future releases!

York Festival of Ideas 2025: The Delights of Football

 

• 
  
  
  
  
• Saturday 7 June 2025, 3.15pm to 4.15pm
• Location: In-person only at Ron Cooke Hub, Campus East, University of York (Map)Admission:
• Free admission, booking required

Book tickets

From sportswashing to ticket prices, we hear much that is critical about modern football - but what remains magic about the game? From the beauty of floodlights to the glorious moment when a referee falls over, Daniel Gray, author of the Delights series of football books and owner of a Bootham Crescent turnstile, lyrically celebrates the simple joys of the beautiful game.

Join in the conversation at an event hosted by York’s Soccer-Mad Boffins Alex Gillett and Kevin Tennent of the University of York.

Daniel Gray is the author of the Delights series of football books, Stramash and Homage to Caledonia. For a short period in the early 1990s he was the finest left-back in his village, once marking Gordon Strachan’s youngest son (the one who didn’t become a footballer) out of the game. A Middlesbrough supporter, Daniel began attending football matches in 1988 and has never recovered. He has worked in a psychiatric hospital, a library and in television and politics.

Soccer-Mad Boffins' Field Trip to Millwall FC

On Saturday 15th March we attended Millwall’s Community Day centred around a Saturday league game against Stoke City, on the invitation of the club's Community Trust Safeguarding and EDI Lead, and Women's Team General Manager Jason Vincent. Various employers and agencies from public and private sector attended with stalls and fundraising, and a community football tournament involving men’s, women’s, boys and girls teams took place in the morning. A safe atmosphere was maintained in and around the stadium with a carnival feel, and at half time a procession took place around the stadium showcasing the club’s women’s and community teams. Some of the employability workers that we spoke to reported a better uptake in engaging with vocational training by involving the club than through the job centre – it was clear that these programmes run jointly with the Department for Work and Pensions and the Greater London Authority were very successful. The Lions triumphed with a last gasp penalty in the 90th minute winning 1-0 after a tense game.

Paris 2024 is here!

It feels like Euro 2024 with disappointment for England has only just gone - but another global sporting megaevent is here already - the Paris 2024 Summer Olympic games. With 329 events in 32 sports there will be plenty of action to keep us going! The men's and women's football competitions are no different. Although football has its own World Cups for men and women (as often covered by us here!) the Olympics still play an important role. 

The men's competition is really a sort of global 'age group' tournament, with teams allowed to field only three players aged over 23, while in women's football the competition is open to players of all ages, making it a secondary world cup! 

As usual we sat down before kick off to predict the tournaments ourselves, and also randomly, with a dice. 

 

Men 

Alex predicted that Spain will repeat their Euros triumph - ultimately with a 4-2 victory over North African hopefuls Morocco. He predicts Argentina will win the bronze medal triumphing 3-0 ove Japan in the third place match. Morocco won their controversial game against Argentina yesterday thanks to a VAR decision so their rise through the tournament looks like it is on! 

Kevin predicted that Argentina would see gold instead, with their younger generation looking to repeat the World Cup triumph of their elders. Spain would win silver after a tight but exciting final, losing 2-3. Egypt would enjoy a favorable tournament and win bronze, narrowly over Ukraine, winning 0-1 in extra time in the third place match. 

The dice as ever predicted the most interesting outcome - Japan will be champions, after a 6-6 thriller with Iraq, a team famously tipped by sporting economists Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski to eventually rise to world dominance. Argentina would have to content themselves with the Bronze, after beating Egypt 0-1. 

Women 

Great Britain failed to qualify for the Olympics after England, who were representing them, finished as runners up in their Nations League group in December 2023 - but there is still plenty of action to enjoy, as we give other nations a chance at Olympic glory! 

Alex predicted that the victors will be France - in spectacular fashion, triumphing 5-4 over a Brazil in a spectacular final match, ending on extra time. Expectations on the home side will certainly be high. 

World champions Spain would win Bronze after a 1-2 third place match, with former serial World Champions Germany missing out. 

Kevin predicted that the Brazilians, whose performance has gradually improved in recent years, would triumph - with a 3-2 win over Germany in the final. The French would have to content themselves with Bronze, in a 2-0 win over Australia - so often the fate of host nations who do well in a tournament only to be pipped at the post!

On the dice, Columbia were predicted to be champions, triumphing 2-0 over Australia in the final. Canada would get bronze, beating Nigeria 1-0. 

So now we know what we think will happen over to reality-  who's going to win the two gold medals on offer?

Will Lionel Messi’s arrival spark a football renaissance in the USA?

 Will Lionel Messi’s arrival spark a football renaissance in the USA? Bala Chambers writing for TRTWorld thinks it might in this article, for which he spoke to soccer mad boffin Dr Alex G. Gillett.

Alex references the NASL and Pele, the 1994 FIFA World Cup, as well as the more recent involvement of David Beckham with the MSL.

To read the article please click anywhere on this line of text.

For more from the soccer mad boffins about football in the USA see the following articles, click on the titles and a link should open, although the first one might not be fully open access so you may need a university library login or personal account:

Hybrid Goals (1994 FIFA World Cup)

The Growth of Major League Soccer

New Book Chapter: Moments, Metaphors, Memories Defining Events in the History of Soccer

 

We are pleased to announce a new book based on the Special Issue of 'Soccer & Society' journal that we had a paper in, about the 1966 FIFA World Cup:

As the most popular mass spectator sport across the world, soccer generates key moments of significance on and off the field, encapsulated in events that create metaphors and memories, with wider social, cultural, psychological, political, commercial and aesthetic implications. Since its inception as a modern game, the history of soccer has been replete with events that have changed the organization, meanings and impact of the sport. The passage from the club to the nation or from the local to the global often opens up transnational spaces that provide a context for studying the events that have 'defined' the sport and its followers. Such defining events can include sporting performances, decisions taken by various stakeholders of the game, accidents and violence among players and fans, and invention of supporter cultures, among other things. 

This volume attempts to document, identify and analyse some of the defining events in the history of soccer from interdisciplinary and comparative perspectives. It revisits the discourses of signification and memorialization of such events that have influenced society, culture, politics, religion, and commerce. 

This book was originally published as a special issue of the journal Soccer & Society.

Publisher: Taylor & Francis Ltd 
ISBN: 9780367696160 
Number of pages: 235 
Dimensions: 246 x 174 mm

About our chapter: 

Our paper, included here as a chapter, is: "'‘Filip’or flop? Managing public relations and the Latin American reaction to the 1966 FIFA World Cup'.

"The 1966 FIFA World Cup has become part of the iconography of its hosts and champions, England. Extant literature has tended to focus on the cultural and symbolic legacy of the tournament, or engaged with diplomatic relations between Britain and North Korea. Contrastingly, we use archival sources from footballing and government institutions to explore the less studied topic of how the tournament was reported and perceived in Latin America, where England had commercial interests and influence, but where there were allegations that FIFA, the FA and even the UK government manipulated the tournament to the advantage of England and other European teams. We provide fresh perspectives on the social and cultural significance of the 1966 FIFA World Cup by analysing how the tournament’s organizers attempted to manage the situation and resulting negative public relations, and how 1966 fits within longer-term footballing and diplomatic relations between England and Latin America.

New Article Published by 'Soccer & Society'

We are pleased to announce that our latest paper '‘Filip’ or flop? Managing public relations and the Latin American reaction to the 1966 FIFA World Cup' is now available online.

It is published by the journal 'Soccer & Society' and will when available in print it will be included in a Special Issue on the topic of 'Moments, Metaphors, Memories: Defining Events in the History of Soccer'.

First 50 readers using this weblink get FREE access to our article by clicking HERE

Thereafter you can find it by clicking HERE

ABSTRACT

The 1966 FIFA World Cup has become part of the iconography of its hosts and champions, England. Extant literature has tended to focus on the cultural and symbolic legacy of the tournament, or engaged with diplomatic relations between Britain and North Korea. Contrastingly, we use archival sources from footballing and government institutions to explore the less studied topic of how the tournament was reported and perceived in Latin America, where England had commercial interests and influence, but where there were allegations that FIFA, the FA and even the UK government manipulated the tournament to the advantage of England and other European teams. We provide fresh perspectives on the social and cultural significance of the 1966 FIFA World Cup by analysing how the tournament’s organizers attempted to manage the situation and resulting negative public relations, and how 1966 fits within longer-term footballing and diplomatic relations between England and Latin America.

The Cricket World Cup Starts Tomorrow!

Time to get your pads on!  England is hosting the 12th Cricket World Cup, which starts at The Oval tomorrow at 10.30am with a match between England and South Africa.  Cricket's equivalent of football's biggest spectacle will involve the top ten 'Test' playing teams and culminate at Lord's on Sunday 14th July, with a structure somewhat different from the football version - all ten teams will play each other in the first round, before the top four teams go on into the semi-finals. England have hosted the Cricket World Cup four previous times - 1975, 1979, 1983 and 1999, but have yet to lift the trophy themselves; famously they exited the competition in 1999 before the official single was released. Perhaps England will triumph this time? Compared to the soccer version, the tournament has been cheap to hold, as existing cricket stadiums have been used - the main case of boosterism in the tournament's history is the infamous 2007 edition in the West Indies, when a reported US$500m was spent constructing new stadiums and supporting infrastructure, but attendances suffered as supporters from the game's commercial heartlands in India and Pakistan found travelling to the Windward and Leeward Islands difficult, perhaps encouraging their teams' early exit from the competition (Majumdar, 2009)!

So why is this tournament of relevance to soccer-mad boffins?  Firstly, there are many historic links between the two sports.  Cricket, a sport favored by the English gentry, emerged as an organized sport a century (or more) before football, and many football clubs were founded to keep cricketers fit during the winter.  Cricket was a bastion of 'gentlemanly amateurism' (until 1973 professional players had to use a separate dressing room from amateurs) and this allowed for many players to play both sports, most notably perhaps C B Fry, who briefly played in the Football League for Southampton. This has become difficult more recently as both sports have professionalised, but many young players still try their hand in both disciplines - of relatively recent players Phil Neville of Manchester United fame played as an opening batsman for England under 15s.

Amateur cricket played on a village green

Secondly, the amateurism theme is one which is important for the history of Sport in Britain in general, and cricket tried to cling onto its amateurism to the extent that in many counties in the South of England eschewed the development of competitive league structures, as they were felt to encourage professionalism. The research of top cricket historian Duncan Stone on this topic is worth reading!  Cricket is still struggling to establish a viable institutional context for professionalization today, with ever shorter forms of the game being introduced, and new franchises complimenting or replacing the traditional county or state based structures around the world.  Though, there is a good commercial reason for this - if played in Test Cricket form, in which games are played over five days, the World Cup would probably take around three months to complete!

Thirdly, it has a link to 1966 - cricket, then a much more visible TV sport than today, cooperated with the English FA by suspending Test Matches for the whole of July 1966!

So, there are plenty of reasons to fish out your long wave radio and tune into the tournament!

Here is a visual guide to cricket for the uninitiated should any of the jargon above (and cricket has a lot of jargon) have you stumped!

FIFA Women's World Cup 2019 - predictions

With the FIFA Women’s World Cup almost upon us, we decided to repeat the fun of last year’s Men’s tournament and map out three scenarios: Kevin’s predictions, Alex’s predictions, and the predictions of a dice roll.

A quick explanation as to how the dice roll scores were calculated

-        If rolling a 1, 2, or 3 that’s the score,

-        If rolling 4 or 5 it counted as ‘nil’, and;

-        Rolling a 6 meant roll again and use whatever number comes up (so the upper limit of normal time is 6 goals but it is fairly unlikely to come up).

So what are the predictions?

As usual at the end of the Group Stage we will show all of our predictions and those of the dice vs the reality.  If we can find them, we will also try to compare with any algorithm type predictions as proposed by statisticians working for business consultancies and universities.

We cannot all get every prediction right, so we will then try to do another set of predictions based on who actually gets out of the Group Stages and as the knock-out rounds unfold.

But in the meantime we had a go at predicting the entire tournament…

Random Dice Rolls…

The dice interestingly predict England to get as far as the Round of 16 before losing 0 – 1 China

Scotland meanwhile are set to lose 1 – 0 to Jamaica in Quarter Finals using this method of prediction.

To get there, Jamaica will surprisingly beat USA 3 – 0 in the Round of 16, and eventually reach the final before losing to South Korea 10 – 9 after penalties

Winner: South Korea

Alex

Predicts England to finish in fourth place, losing 1-3 to Brazil in third place play-off.

Predicts Scotland to reach the Round of 16 where they lose 1-2 to Canada.

Hosts France are predicted to knock out the USA by 2-0 in the Quarter-Finals, and England 2-1 in the semi-finals, ultimately winning the tournament having beaten China 2-1 in a hard fought final.

Winner: France

Kevin

England will finish in 4^th place, ultimately losing 0-2 to a strong Japanese team whom he predicts will be the surprise package of the tournament, and will eventually finish 3^rd in the world. 

To get there, Japan will graduate Group D in second place (pipping Scotland to the post – the Scots taking 3^rd place in the Group and not progressing) then Holland 2-1 in the Round of 16.  A controversial 4-1 drubbing of Brasil sees them glide comfortably through the Quarter Finals before running out of steam 1-2 at the hands of Germany in the Semis.

Kevin believes the USA will knock-out another Womens’ soccer superpower China in the round of 16, (2-2 after normal time and then 7-6 to USA after penalties), then they will lose 2-3 to hosts France in the Quarter Finals.

Kevin predicts France to ultimately reach the final, where they will lose 0-2 to Germany.

Winner: Germany

The 2018 FIFA World Cup is here!

The 2018 FIFA World Cup is finally upon us, and the excitement levels are rising at Soccer-Mad Boffins HQ!

It wouldn’t be a World Cup without wall charts, office sweep-stakes, and arguments about which teams will progress from the Group Stages and ultimately win the tournament!

Official FIFA world rankings have Germany in the number one spot (1558 points), with Brazil in second place (with 1431 points). 

Behind them the rest of the top-ten is more bunched on points; Belgium, Portugal, Argentina, Switzerland, France, Poland, Chile, and Spain are all strong teams.  Snapping their heels are Peru (just 1 point behind the Spanish), then Denmark and England, Uruguay, Mexico, Columbia and the Netherlands.

As Kuper and Syzmanski correctly identify, one of the most exciting things about football is that any team can beat another ‘on their day’.  It is the unpredictability and the hope of a giant-killing or a freak score-line that often has us on the edge of our seats.

In 1950 the USA's part-timers beat England, ‘the home of football’ by 1-0.  Even between two heavyweight teams, there can be unpredictable score-lines -  in 2014 who predicted that Germany would thrash Brazil so convincingly 7-1?

Whilst FIFA rankings suggest that either Germany or Brazil are most likely to win this year’s World Cup, if either or both have an early exit then it looks as though the trophy could be any one’s. 

Belgium, Uruguay or Switzerland as finalists?  England to progress beyond the Quarter-Finals?

Just for fun, here at Soccer-Mad Boffins we made our own predictions using a World Cup spread-sheet downloaded from http://www.excely.com/football/2018-fifa-world-cup-schedule.shtml.

According to Alex’s calculations, Germany and Brazil will both reach the finals, with the German’s emerging as winners by a score-line of 2-1.  Third place will go to Portugal who will beat France 3-1 in the 3^rd/4^th place play-off.

Meanwhile, Kevin also predicts a Germany – Brazil final, with Germany winning 1-0 in a slightly more cautious or evenly-matched 90 minutes.  Kevin’s 3^rd/4^th place play-off is between Uruguay and Argentina – with Uruguay winning 2-1.

Just for fun we also conducted ‘the random world cup’ by rolling two dice.  The random factor generated some very interesting results. Here are some highlights:

-       Saudi Arabia to win Group A, Costa Rica to win Group E (with Brazil finishing bottom with just 1 point), and Tunisia to win Group G (England in second place, with Belgium surprisingly in third place and failing to progress). 

-       The dice took Denmark, Mexico, Argentina, and Switzerland into the semi-finals, with dramatic results: Firstly Mexico beat Denmark 5-2 in a seven-goal thriller, then Switzerland (the home of FIFA) dominated Argentine 6-0 to earn their place in the final.

-       The 3^rd/4^th place play-off was another goal-feast: Argentina beating Denmark 3-2, to claim ‘bronze’ (if this were the Olympic Games!)

-     World Cup Finals are often something of an anticlimax and ours was no exception with Switzerland winning 1-0 against Mexico, perhaps after a contentious penalty decision involving the use of the newly introduced VAR, leading to accusations in the English papers of a FIFA inside job!

We can't wait for the tournament to unfold and to see which of our predictions most resembles reality.  Which teams will emerge as a surprise package and shock the favorites?  Which players will hit form and have a breakout tournament? Will the beautiful game or parking the bus triumph? It's almost time to find out!

Download our predictions in full (needs Excel):

Alex's Predictions

Kevin's Predictions

Random Predictions