UEFA Euro 2024 semi finals are here

 

The semi-finals of the UEFA Euro 2024 tournament are upon us. Lasr night Spain beat France 2-1 to book their place in Sunday's Final.  Sixteen year old Lamine Lamal scored one of Spain's goals, thus becoming the tournament's youngest ever goalscorer at just sixteen years of age (younger than our university students!)

Tonight England face Netherlands to decide the other place.

Critics have bemoaned England's boring approach as unconvincing. But that misses the point; show-boat football , or the up n' at 'em hit it and hope favoured by our nation's previous semi-skilled teams, achieved absolutely nothing. 

Whereas Southgate's 'grey men of Europe' tactics have served England well, winning the group and inching into the semi-final. There are no WAGS, no 'dentist chair' nightclub debauchery, no petulance on the field of play. Just a risk averse 'gets the job done' workmanlike dedication to playing football.

Only time will tell how England perform on the night, but maybe just maybe, the can do this.

As usual, here are our predictions for the outcome of the semi-final games, compared to those of random dice-rolls:

	AG	KT	DICE
Spain v France	2 -2 (2-2 AET) (3 - 4 pens)	1 v 1 (3-1 AET)	0 v 1
Netherlands v England	2 v 2 (2v2 AET) (3 V 4 pens)	1 v 1 (2 - 2 AET,  5-4 pens)	1 v 1 (1 v 2AET)

 

Kevin was the only player to correctly predict a Spain win, but did not see that happening inside of 90 minutes.  Alex knew that Spain would net twice, but had more faith in the French.

Alex think that England might just win this one but that it will be close, England once again breaking their penalty shoot-out jinx. Kevin has less faith, predicting Netherlands to just do it on penalties.   The dice? They've decided England to clinch it with an extra-time winner.  

What do YOU think?

As usual these predictions are presented just for fun and we do not encourage gambling.

Euro 2024 Quarter Finals

Lo and behold!  The Quarter Finals of the UEFA European Championships 2024 kick off on Friday 5th July.

Here our our predictions:

	AG	KT	Dice
Spain v Germany	0-0 0-2 AET	2v2 5v4 pens	4 v 3
Portugal v France	2-3	2v1	5 v 2
England v Switzerland	2v1	1v1 2v2 AET, 4v3 pens	0 v 0,  1 v 1 AET, 5 v 3 Pens
Netherlands v Turkey	2v3	2v0	0 v 0, 0 v 3 AET

Alex tips Germany, France, England and Turkey to progress

Kevin chooses Spain, Portugal, England (just!) and Netherlands

The dice favour Spain, Portugal, England and Turkey.

As usual, we present this info only for fun and do not encourage anyone to use these predictions to inform gambling decisions.

Euro 2020 (in 2021!) Predictions

With the covid-delayed Euro 2020 now finally just a few days away, we decided to follow soccermadboffins tradition and map out three scenarios: Kevin’s predictions, Alex’s predictions, and the predictions of a dice roll.

A quick explanation as to how the dice roll scores were calculated

-        If rolling a 1, 2, or 3 that’s the score, 

-        If rolling 4 or 5 it counted as ‘nil’, and;

-        Rolling a 6 meant roll again and use whatever number comes up (so the upper limit of normal time is 6 goals but it is fairly unlikely to come up).

So what are the predictions?

As usual at the end of the Group Stage we will show all of our predictions and those of the dice vs the reality.  If we can find them, after the group stages we will also try to compare with any algorithm type predictions as proposed by statisticians working for business consultancies and universities.

We cannot all get every prediction right, so we will then try to do another set of predictions based on who actually gets out of the Group Stages and as the knock-out rounds unfold.

But in the meantime we had a go at predicting the entire tournament…

Random Dice Rolls…

The dice interestingly predict England to finish 3rd in their group, behind Scotland and Czech Republic, then face North Macedonia in Budapest for a crunch Round of 16 fixture...which North Macedomia win 5-3 after extra time!

Also in the Round of 16 Scotland lose 2-3 to Germany in Dublin. 

Wales finish third in Group A behind Switzerland and Italy, progressing to a showdown with France in the Round of 16, winning 3-2 to become the Great British hope before folding to a 0-6 defeat by the Czech Republic in the Quarter-Finals.

Surprise breakout teams will include Finland, who will reach the semi-final. Also....

Winner: Austria to convincingly beat Hungary 5-1, to lift the trophy!

Austrian team celebrating...a realistic prediction for this year's Euros?

Alex

Predicts England to finish second in their Group, before crashing out to Sweden after a penalty shoot-out in the Round of 16.

Predicts Scotland to finish in third place in their group, just behind England, to reach the Round of 16 where they lose to the Netherlands 1-2 after extra-time.

Predicted Wales to achieve just 1 point to finish third in their group and fail to qualify for the Round of 16.

Winners: Germany to beat Portugal in a close final.

Germany is used to celebrating...could it be deja vu in 2021 and is it starting to get boring yet?

Kevin

England will win Group D before meeting France in the Round of 16, who will beat them on penalties.

Scotland will finish bottom of Group D and fail to progress.

Wales are to be Great Britiain's best hope, finishing as runners-up in Group A just behind Italy, then beating Denmark on penalties in the Round fo 16, before losing 1-2 to Portugal in the Quarter-Final. 

Winner: Belgium to beat France, also in a close final.

Could the Euros bring some excitement to Belgium?

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Check back soon for progress reports on how our predictions (and those fo the dice) fare against reality! (and against statistical modellers such as at Economics Observatory).

Remember, these predictions are for fun only please do not use them as the basis for any gambling decisions!

The big kick-off is this Friday when Turkey play Italy. Wales play Switzerland on Saturday, England kick-off their campaign v Croatia on Sunday, and then Scotland line-up against the Czech Republic on Monday. 

To celebrate, we have a free online public lecture and Q&A with former FIFA-listed referee Keith Hackett. It will take place this Saturday 12th June starting at 2.30pm prompt. It will last for one hour and tickets are completely free, for more info and to book your place please click here.

The 2018 FIFA World Cup is here!

The 2018 FIFA World Cup is finally upon us, and the excitement levels are rising at Soccer-Mad Boffins HQ!

It wouldn’t be a World Cup without wall charts, office sweep-stakes, and arguments about which teams will progress from the Group Stages and ultimately win the tournament!

Official FIFA world rankings have Germany in the number one spot (1558 points), with Brazil in second place (with 1431 points). 

Behind them the rest of the top-ten is more bunched on points; Belgium, Portugal, Argentina, Switzerland, France, Poland, Chile, and Spain are all strong teams.  Snapping their heels are Peru (just 1 point behind the Spanish), then Denmark and England, Uruguay, Mexico, Columbia and the Netherlands.

As Kuper and Syzmanski correctly identify, one of the most exciting things about football is that any team can beat another ‘on their day’.  It is the unpredictability and the hope of a giant-killing or a freak score-line that often has us on the edge of our seats.

In 1950 the USA's part-timers beat England, ‘the home of football’ by 1-0.  Even between two heavyweight teams, there can be unpredictable score-lines -  in 2014 who predicted that Germany would thrash Brazil so convincingly 7-1?

Whilst FIFA rankings suggest that either Germany or Brazil are most likely to win this year’s World Cup, if either or both have an early exit then it looks as though the trophy could be any one’s. 

Belgium, Uruguay or Switzerland as finalists?  England to progress beyond the Quarter-Finals?

Just for fun, here at Soccer-Mad Boffins we made our own predictions using a World Cup spread-sheet downloaded from http://www.excely.com/football/2018-fifa-world-cup-schedule.shtml.

According to Alex’s calculations, Germany and Brazil will both reach the finals, with the German’s emerging as winners by a score-line of 2-1.  Third place will go to Portugal who will beat France 3-1 in the 3^rd/4^th place play-off.

Meanwhile, Kevin also predicts a Germany – Brazil final, with Germany winning 1-0 in a slightly more cautious or evenly-matched 90 minutes.  Kevin’s 3^rd/4^th place play-off is between Uruguay and Argentina – with Uruguay winning 2-1.

Just for fun we also conducted ‘the random world cup’ by rolling two dice.  The random factor generated some very interesting results. Here are some highlights:

-       Saudi Arabia to win Group A, Costa Rica to win Group E (with Brazil finishing bottom with just 1 point), and Tunisia to win Group G (England in second place, with Belgium surprisingly in third place and failing to progress). 

-       The dice took Denmark, Mexico, Argentina, and Switzerland into the semi-finals, with dramatic results: Firstly Mexico beat Denmark 5-2 in a seven-goal thriller, then Switzerland (the home of FIFA) dominated Argentine 6-0 to earn their place in the final.

-       The 3^rd/4^th place play-off was another goal-feast: Argentina beating Denmark 3-2, to claim ‘bronze’ (if this were the Olympic Games!)

-     World Cup Finals are often something of an anticlimax and ours was no exception with Switzerland winning 1-0 against Mexico, perhaps after a contentious penalty decision involving the use of the newly introduced VAR, leading to accusations in the English papers of a FIFA inside job!

We can't wait for the tournament to unfold and to see which of our predictions most resembles reality.  Which teams will emerge as a surprise package and shock the favorites?  Which players will hit form and have a breakout tournament? Will the beautiful game or parking the bus triumph? It's almost time to find out!

Download our predictions in full (needs Excel):

Alex's Predictions

Kevin's Predictions

Random Predictions