UEFA Women's Euros 2025: Group Stages Predictions & Reflections

 GROUP STAGES

 With the Group stages now complete, we can see that Alex’s prediction that Spain will beat Germany to win the tournament, and Kevin’s that Sweden will beat Germany, are still very much alive.

However, the random dice rolls’ projection of a Netherlands v Wales final (0-3 Netherlands on penalties) has been consigned to the reject bin.

So, let’s break down how we all did, group by group. To make things interesting we have awarded a point for each correctly predicted finishing position in each group.

 

Group A

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Norway	Switzerland	Iceland	Norway
2	Switzerland	Finland	Switzerland	Finland
3	Finland	Iceland	Norway	Iceland
4	Iceland	Norway	Finland	Switzerland
Points (4 maximum)	-	0	1	1

 

Only the dice could foresee plucky Norway’s triumph in this Group. Both Alex and Kevin did not even think that they would progress. Overall, this was the trickiest Group to predict with Kevin and the dice being most accurate with 1 point out of a possible 4 (or 25%).

 

Group B

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Spain	Spain	Spain	Portugal
2	Italy	Italy	Italy	Italy
3	Belgium	Portugal	Portugal	Belgium
4	Portugal	Belgium	Belgium	Spain
Points	-	2	2	2

 

Alex and Kevin both accurately predicted the top two but got the bottom two in the wrong order. The dice picked up points for being accurate about Italy and Belgium’s outcomes but were comically wide of the mark in terms of top and bottom. However, all three predictors picked up 2 points, or 50% of what was available.

 

Group C

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Sweden	Germany	Sweden	Poland
2	Germany	Sweden	Germany	Sweden
3	Poland	Poland	Denmark	Denmark
4	Denmark	Denmark	Poland	Germany
Points	-	2	2	0

 

AG was correct about the bottom two but got the order of the top two the wrong wat round. For Kevin, the reverse was true. Two points apiece.  The Dice had a miserable Group with zero points accumulated.

 

Group D

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	France	France	England	Netherlands
2	England	Netherlands	France	Wales
3	Netherlands	England	Netherlands	France
4	Wales	Wales	Wales	England
Points	-	2	2	0

 

AG should have had more faith in England’s chances! But was accurately pessimistic about Wales. Both he and Kevin picked up another two points, but once again it was poor form for the dice.

 

 

Total Points

Kevin tops the leader board for correct placings with 7 points (44% accuracy). Alex was correct about a third of the time with 6 points (38% accuracy). Random chance was the weakest predictor, the dice scoring just 3 points overall (19% accuracy).

AG	KT	Dice
6 (38%)	7 (44%)	3 (19%)

 

We can of course look at this in other ways, and looking simply at who predicted the top two teams to qualify from each group, but not necessarily in what order, can be done if we award a point for each team correctly identified as progressing front the Group stages.

With four groups and the top two finishers qualifying from each, we have a maximum of 8 points up for grabs, the actual points are given with percentage accuracy in brackets, Kevin’s clairvoyance is all the more impressive and Alex scores impressively too:

 

AG	KT	Dice
6 (75%)	7 (86%)	2 (25%)

 

 

QUARTER FINALS

 We now turn our attention to the Quarter Finals, for which we made a fresh set of predictions now that we know exactly which teams will face which. We will publish more information at a later date, but suffice to say that both Alex and Kevin have England to progress to the semi-finals when they play Sweden this Thursday 17^th July at 8pm.

 

 

Please note that the predictions on this blog are for academic purposes only and should not be used to inform gambling or gambling decisions.

Women's 2025 Euros are here

It is here! The Women's Euros 2025 kicked off on week ago, on Wednesday 2nd July,  with opening defeats for both holders England and geographic neighbours, Wales.

As usual we made our own predictions, and rolled a dice for the entire tournament. This is how we each think that the Final will play out:

Alex: Germany 2 - 2 Spain, (6-7 penalties)

Kevin: Sweden 2 - 2 Germany (5-4 penalties)

Dice: Wales 0 - 0 Netherlands (0-3 penalties)

Here is how we each predict the GB teams will fare:

Alex: England - Group Stages (finish 3rd, fail to progress) / Wales - Group Stages (finish 4th, fail to progress)

Kevin: England lose in Quarter Final to Germany (2-2 normal play, 4-5 penalties / Wales - Group Stages (finish 4th, fail to progress)

Dice - England - Group Stages (finish 4th, fail to progress) / Wales - Runners Up (see above)

But how will it play out? Will 2022's hosts and champions England 'bring it home' again? Or will Spain who beat England in the final of the 2023 World Cup sustain its dominance? Will a long-shot dark horse team emerge to surprise us  - such as the dice prediction of Wales finishing Runners-Up?

Both England and Wales will play this evening, and we wish both well in their respective games.  They will face each other in a show-down on Sunday 13th July.

Please note that the above predictions are for fun only and are not advice for betting on the outcomes of these or any football games. The authors cannot  accept any liability for the performance or outcomes.

Euro 2020(2021) Predictions: How did we do? How did we compare?

We are very pleased to present our full technical report, which includes a detailed summary of our predictions of the UEFA Euro Championship 2020 (held in 2021).

We conclude that the tournament was exciting and also somewhat unpredictable, and compare our own predictions with those of other publicised predictions and scenarios including Daily Mirror and University of Reading.

The full report can be found here

Euro 2021 Round of 16: England Prevail but Brave Wales Stumble

Of the British Home Nations, valiant Scotland fell at the Group Stage, meaning that only England and Wales progressed to the Round of 16.

Predicting the results, Alex was not very confident of Wales nor England's chances, predicting the Welsh exit (although underestimating Danish firepower) but not calling England's rare win over Germany.

Kevin believed Wales would beat Denmark after a penalty shoot-out, but also predicting that Germany would prevail of England after yet another shoot-out.

The dice correctly predicted a Wales defeat and an England victory, as well as some high-scoring games.

Overall, Alex and Kevin both correctly predicted 2 correct outcomes but no correct shorelines. The dice however got an amazing 5 correct outcomes and even 1 exactly correct scoreline, bizarrely predicting the eight-goal thriller between Croatia and Spain, we did not see that one coming.

So, we conclude that this was a chaotic and seemingly random set of results but very entertaining. Roll on the Quarter-finals...

	AG	KT	Dice	Actual Score
Wales v Denmark	1-2	1-1  (Wales win on pens)	1-2	0-4
Italy v Austria	3-1	2-0	1-0	2-1
Netherlands v Czech Rep	2-1	2-2  (Neths win on pens)	0-0  score   5-3 after extra time	0-2
Belgium v Portugal	2-3	3-2	2-1	1-0
Croatia v Spain	2-1	1-0	3-5	3-5
France v Switzerland	4-0	3-0	2-5	3-3  (4-5)
England v Germany	2-3	1-1 (Germany win on pens)	1-0	2-0
Sweden v Ukraine	2-2  (sweden win on penalties)	2-0	2-6	1-2

Euro 2021: Great Brits' Second Fixtures

Another week and another set of results for our Home Nations heroes!

Wales has now fulfilled three fixtures and qualified for the Round of 16. Well done Bale & Co. 

Their progress was though predicted by the dice. More about that next time when we consider the final group rankings.

For now it is enough to say that our random dice roles "knew" the welsh would beat Turkey, although not the exact scoreline. Which is more than can be said of us, as we were not so optimistic, predicting a draw at best.

The biggest game of the weekend for us was England v Scotland.  Yes we know that there were many big games, not least Germany v Portugal, but from a soccermadboffins perspective it was the game at Wembley that was most anticipated.

Alex thought it would be an end-to-end thriller of guts and glory, with England eventually winning 3-2.  Kevin was a little more conservative, believing that England would scrape past the Scots 1-0 (perhaps a Harry Kane penalty?). The dice called it at 0-2 to the Scots!  

The reality was 0-0 but the game was far from boring. Some great passing moves and several chances on goal for both sides made it an edge-of-the-seat emotional rollercoaster. But one thing was apparent: If Harry Kane is marked out of the game or deprived of service, then there are no prolific strikers in either country at this level. Perhaps an indicator of the reliance on imported talent in the Premier League? 

Finally, on Sunday afternoon Italy beat Wales by 1-0, although the welsh were down to ten men for a  portion of the game, so it really wasn't a bad result, although a win would have been a nice Fathers Day gift for some!

How did we do with this one? Well Kevin was bang on with his prediction, whilst Alex got the outcome right, but not the exact score.  The dice were wrong about everything.

Full details are provided in the table below which compares the actual results with our predictions.

More coming soon, including a round-up of the remaining Group Stage scores, as well as final Group rankings, and our predictions. How closely did we call it? Tune in next time to find out!

Euro 2021: Great Brits' First Fixtures

What a few days! All three of the GB teams that qualified for the Euros have now played their first fixtures.  

As reported previously, we are once again running our predictions vs those of a dice throw.  So far the only actual correct prediction was Alex who fortold of Wales' 1-1 draw with Switzerland.

Today saw a valiant Scotland lose 0-2 to the Czech Republic, a result that did not live up to either or our optimistic predictions, nor those of the dice.

Football took one step towards home yesterday when England scraped past Croatia by a goal to nil.  Neither Alex nor Kevin had seen that coming, perhaps bearing in mind the last time that these two met in a major tournament, and/or England's usual stuttering start in these things.  The dice showed most confidence calling it 3-0 to England and although the scoreline was far more conservative, all points did go England's way.

When we look at goals scored things do look more accurate: Alex, Kevin and the dice all predicted that Wales would find the back of the net once. Alex and Kevin also both knew that England were good for a goal against Croatia, and the dice somehow knew that the Croats would fail to score. Kevin was most realistic about Scotland's finishing, whilst the dice cannily 'knew' that the Czech's would put two past them.

More updates coming soon. We'll try to report back regularly in relation to the three 'Home' nations involved as well as the usual Group Stage summary and Final Report once the tournament has drawn to a close. 

So, watch this space!

Euro 2020 (in 2021!) Predictions

With the covid-delayed Euro 2020 now finally just a few days away, we decided to follow soccermadboffins tradition and map out three scenarios: Kevin’s predictions, Alex’s predictions, and the predictions of a dice roll.

A quick explanation as to how the dice roll scores were calculated

-        If rolling a 1, 2, or 3 that’s the score, 

-        If rolling 4 or 5 it counted as ‘nil’, and;

-        Rolling a 6 meant roll again and use whatever number comes up (so the upper limit of normal time is 6 goals but it is fairly unlikely to come up).

So what are the predictions?

As usual at the end of the Group Stage we will show all of our predictions and those of the dice vs the reality.  If we can find them, after the group stages we will also try to compare with any algorithm type predictions as proposed by statisticians working for business consultancies and universities.

We cannot all get every prediction right, so we will then try to do another set of predictions based on who actually gets out of the Group Stages and as the knock-out rounds unfold.

But in the meantime we had a go at predicting the entire tournament…

Random Dice Rolls…

The dice interestingly predict England to finish 3rd in their group, behind Scotland and Czech Republic, then face North Macedonia in Budapest for a crunch Round of 16 fixture...which North Macedomia win 5-3 after extra time!

Also in the Round of 16 Scotland lose 2-3 to Germany in Dublin. 

Wales finish third in Group A behind Switzerland and Italy, progressing to a showdown with France in the Round of 16, winning 3-2 to become the Great British hope before folding to a 0-6 defeat by the Czech Republic in the Quarter-Finals.

Surprise breakout teams will include Finland, who will reach the semi-final. Also....

Winner: Austria to convincingly beat Hungary 5-1, to lift the trophy!

Austrian team celebrating...a realistic prediction for this year's Euros?

Alex

Predicts England to finish second in their Group, before crashing out to Sweden after a penalty shoot-out in the Round of 16.

Predicts Scotland to finish in third place in their group, just behind England, to reach the Round of 16 where they lose to the Netherlands 1-2 after extra-time.

Predicted Wales to achieve just 1 point to finish third in their group and fail to qualify for the Round of 16.

Winners: Germany to beat Portugal in a close final.

Germany is used to celebrating...could it be deja vu in 2021 and is it starting to get boring yet?

Kevin

England will win Group D before meeting France in the Round of 16, who will beat them on penalties.

Scotland will finish bottom of Group D and fail to progress.

Wales are to be Great Britiain's best hope, finishing as runners-up in Group A just behind Italy, then beating Denmark on penalties in the Round fo 16, before losing 1-2 to Portugal in the Quarter-Final. 

Winner: Belgium to beat France, also in a close final.

Could the Euros bring some excitement to Belgium?

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Check back soon for progress reports on how our predictions (and those fo the dice) fare against reality! (and against statistical modellers such as at Economics Observatory).

Remember, these predictions are for fun only please do not use them as the basis for any gambling decisions!

The big kick-off is this Friday when Turkey play Italy. Wales play Switzerland on Saturday, England kick-off their campaign v Croatia on Sunday, and then Scotland line-up against the Czech Republic on Monday. 

To celebrate, we have a free online public lecture and Q&A with former FIFA-listed referee Keith Hackett. It will take place this Saturday 12th June starting at 2.30pm prompt. It will last for one hour and tickets are completely free, for more info and to book your place please click here.