A quick explanation as to how the dice roll scores were calculated
- If rolling a 1, 2, or 3 that’s the score,
- If rolling 4 or 5 it counted as ‘nil’, and;
- Rolling a 6 meant roll again and use whatever number comes up (so the upper limit of normal time is 6 goals but it is fairly unlikely to come up).
So what are the predictions?
As usual at the end of the Group Stage we will show all of our predictions and those of the dice vs the reality. If we can find them, after the group stages we will also try to compare with any algorithm type predictions as proposed by statisticians working for business consultancies and universities.
We cannot all get every prediction right, so we will then try to do another set of predictions based on who actually gets out of the Group Stages and as the knock-out rounds unfold.
But in the meantime we had a go at predicting the entire tournament…
Random Dice Rolls…
The dice interestingly predict England to finish 3rd in their group, behind Scotland and Czech Republic, then face North Macedonia in Budapest for a crunch Round of 16 fixture...which North Macedomia win 5-3 after extra time!
Also in the Round of 16 Scotland lose 2-3 to Germany in Dublin.
Wales finish third in Group A behind Switzerland and Italy, progressing to a showdown with France in the Round of 16, winning 3-2 to become the Great British hope before folding to a 0-6 defeat by the Czech Republic in the Quarter-Finals.
Surprise breakout teams will include Finland, who will reach the semi-final. Also....
Winner: Austria to convincingly beat Hungary 5-1, to lift the trophy!
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| Austrian team celebrating...a realistic prediction for this year's Euros? |
Alex
Predicts England to finish second in their Group, before crashing out to Sweden after a penalty shoot-out in the Round of 16.
Predicts Scotland to finish in third place in their group, just behind England, to reach the Round of 16 where they lose to the Netherlands 1-2 after extra-time.
Predicted Wales to achieve just 1 point to finish third in their group and fail to qualify for the Round of 16.
Winners: Germany to beat Portugal in a close final.
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| Germany is used to celebrating...could it be deja vu in 2021 and is it starting to get boring yet? |
Kevin
England will win Group D before meeting France in the Round of 16, who will beat them on penalties.
Scotland will finish bottom of Group D and fail to progress.
Wales are to be Great Britiain's best hope, finishing as runners-up in Group A just behind Italy, then beating Denmark on penalties in the Round fo 16, before losing 1-2 to Portugal in the Quarter-Final.
Winner: Belgium to beat France, also in a close final.
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| Could the Euros bring some excitement to Belgium? |
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Check back soon for progress reports on how our predictions (and those fo the dice) fare against reality! (and against statistical modellers such as at Economics Observatory).
Remember, these predictions are for fun only please do not use them as the basis for any gambling decisions!
The big kick-off is this Friday when Turkey play Italy. Wales play Switzerland on Saturday, England kick-off their campaign v Croatia on Sunday, and then Scotland line-up against the Czech Republic on Monday.
To celebrate, we have a free online public lecture and Q&A with former FIFA-listed referee Keith Hackett. It will take place this Saturday 12th June starting at 2.30pm prompt. It will last for one hour and tickets are completely free, for more info and to book your place please click here.
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