Euro 2021 Round of 16: England Prevail but Brave Wales Stumble

Of the British Home Nations, valiant Scotland fell at the Group Stage, meaning that only England and Wales progressed to the Round of 16.

Predicting the results, Alex was not very confident of Wales nor England's chances, predicting the Welsh exit (although underestimating Danish firepower) but not calling England's rare win over Germany.

Kevin believed Wales would beat Denmark after a penalty shoot-out, but also predicting that Germany would prevail of England after yet another shoot-out.

The dice correctly predicted a Wales defeat and an England victory, as well as some high-scoring games.

Overall, Alex and Kevin both correctly predicted 2 correct outcomes but no correct shorelines. The dice however got an amazing 5 correct outcomes and even 1 exactly correct scoreline, bizarrely predicting the eight-goal thriller between Croatia and Spain, we did not see that one coming.

So, we conclude that this was a chaotic and seemingly random set of results but very entertaining. Roll on the Quarter-finals...

	AG	KT	Dice	Actual Score
Wales v Denmark	1-2	1-1  (Wales win on pens)	1-2	0-4
Italy v Austria	3-1	2-0	1-0	2-1
Netherlands v Czech Rep	2-1	2-2  (Neths win on pens)	0-0  score   5-3 after extra time	0-2
Belgium v Portugal	2-3	3-2	2-1	1-0
Croatia v Spain	2-1	1-0	3-5	3-5
France v Switzerland	4-0	3-0	2-5	3-3  (4-5)
England v Germany	2-3	1-1 (Germany win on pens)	1-0	2-0
Sweden v Ukraine	2-2  (sweden win on penalties)	2-0	2-6	1-2

Euro 2021: Great Brits' Second Fixtures

Another week and another set of results for our Home Nations heroes!

Wales has now fulfilled three fixtures and qualified for the Round of 16. Well done Bale & Co. 

Their progress was though predicted by the dice. More about that next time when we consider the final group rankings.

For now it is enough to say that our random dice roles "knew" the welsh would beat Turkey, although not the exact scoreline. Which is more than can be said of us, as we were not so optimistic, predicting a draw at best.

The biggest game of the weekend for us was England v Scotland.  Yes we know that there were many big games, not least Germany v Portugal, but from a soccermadboffins perspective it was the game at Wembley that was most anticipated.

Alex thought it would be an end-to-end thriller of guts and glory, with England eventually winning 3-2.  Kevin was a little more conservative, believing that England would scrape past the Scots 1-0 (perhaps a Harry Kane penalty?). The dice called it at 0-2 to the Scots!  

The reality was 0-0 but the game was far from boring. Some great passing moves and several chances on goal for both sides made it an edge-of-the-seat emotional rollercoaster. But one thing was apparent: If Harry Kane is marked out of the game or deprived of service, then there are no prolific strikers in either country at this level. Perhaps an indicator of the reliance on imported talent in the Premier League? 

Finally, on Sunday afternoon Italy beat Wales by 1-0, although the welsh were down to ten men for a  portion of the game, so it really wasn't a bad result, although a win would have been a nice Fathers Day gift for some!

How did we do with this one? Well Kevin was bang on with his prediction, whilst Alex got the outcome right, but not the exact score.  The dice were wrong about everything.

Full details are provided in the table below which compares the actual results with our predictions.

More coming soon, including a round-up of the remaining Group Stage scores, as well as final Group rankings, and our predictions. How closely did we call it? Tune in next time to find out!

Euro 2021: Great Brits' First Fixtures

What a few days! All three of the GB teams that qualified for the Euros have now played their first fixtures.  

As reported previously, we are once again running our predictions vs those of a dice throw.  So far the only actual correct prediction was Alex who fortold of Wales' 1-1 draw with Switzerland.

Today saw a valiant Scotland lose 0-2 to the Czech Republic, a result that did not live up to either or our optimistic predictions, nor those of the dice.

Football took one step towards home yesterday when England scraped past Croatia by a goal to nil.  Neither Alex nor Kevin had seen that coming, perhaps bearing in mind the last time that these two met in a major tournament, and/or England's usual stuttering start in these things.  The dice showed most confidence calling it 3-0 to England and although the scoreline was far more conservative, all points did go England's way.

When we look at goals scored things do look more accurate: Alex, Kevin and the dice all predicted that Wales would find the back of the net once. Alex and Kevin also both knew that England were good for a goal against Croatia, and the dice somehow knew that the Croats would fail to score. Kevin was most realistic about Scotland's finishing, whilst the dice cannily 'knew' that the Czech's would put two past them.

More updates coming soon. We'll try to report back regularly in relation to the three 'Home' nations involved as well as the usual Group Stage summary and Final Report once the tournament has drawn to a close. 

So, watch this space!

Euro 2020 (in 2021!) Predictions

With the covid-delayed Euro 2020 now finally just a few days away, we decided to follow soccermadboffins tradition and map out three scenarios: Kevin’s predictions, Alex’s predictions, and the predictions of a dice roll.

A quick explanation as to how the dice roll scores were calculated

-        If rolling a 1, 2, or 3 that’s the score, 

-        If rolling 4 or 5 it counted as ‘nil’, and;

-        Rolling a 6 meant roll again and use whatever number comes up (so the upper limit of normal time is 6 goals but it is fairly unlikely to come up).

So what are the predictions?

As usual at the end of the Group Stage we will show all of our predictions and those of the dice vs the reality.  If we can find them, after the group stages we will also try to compare with any algorithm type predictions as proposed by statisticians working for business consultancies and universities.

We cannot all get every prediction right, so we will then try to do another set of predictions based on who actually gets out of the Group Stages and as the knock-out rounds unfold.

But in the meantime we had a go at predicting the entire tournament…

Random Dice Rolls…

The dice interestingly predict England to finish 3rd in their group, behind Scotland and Czech Republic, then face North Macedonia in Budapest for a crunch Round of 16 fixture...which North Macedomia win 5-3 after extra time!

Also in the Round of 16 Scotland lose 2-3 to Germany in Dublin. 

Wales finish third in Group A behind Switzerland and Italy, progressing to a showdown with France in the Round of 16, winning 3-2 to become the Great British hope before folding to a 0-6 defeat by the Czech Republic in the Quarter-Finals.

Surprise breakout teams will include Finland, who will reach the semi-final. Also....

Winner: Austria to convincingly beat Hungary 5-1, to lift the trophy!

Austrian team celebrating...a realistic prediction for this year's Euros?

Alex

Predicts England to finish second in their Group, before crashing out to Sweden after a penalty shoot-out in the Round of 16.

Predicts Scotland to finish in third place in their group, just behind England, to reach the Round of 16 where they lose to the Netherlands 1-2 after extra-time.

Predicted Wales to achieve just 1 point to finish third in their group and fail to qualify for the Round of 16.

Winners: Germany to beat Portugal in a close final.

Germany is used to celebrating...could it be deja vu in 2021 and is it starting to get boring yet?

Kevin

England will win Group D before meeting France in the Round of 16, who will beat them on penalties.

Scotland will finish bottom of Group D and fail to progress.

Wales are to be Great Britiain's best hope, finishing as runners-up in Group A just behind Italy, then beating Denmark on penalties in the Round fo 16, before losing 1-2 to Portugal in the Quarter-Final. 

Winner: Belgium to beat France, also in a close final.

Could the Euros bring some excitement to Belgium?

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Check back soon for progress reports on how our predictions (and those fo the dice) fare against reality! (and against statistical modellers such as at Economics Observatory).

Remember, these predictions are for fun only please do not use them as the basis for any gambling decisions!

The big kick-off is this Friday when Turkey play Italy. Wales play Switzerland on Saturday, England kick-off their campaign v Croatia on Sunday, and then Scotland line-up against the Czech Republic on Monday. 

To celebrate, we have a free online public lecture and Q&A with former FIFA-listed referee Keith Hackett. It will take place this Saturday 12th June starting at 2.30pm prompt. It will last for one hour and tickets are completely free, for more info and to book your place please click here.