With the FIFA Women’s World Cup almost upon us, we decided
to repeat the fun of last year’s Men’s tournament and map out three scenarios:
Kevin’s predictions, Alex’s predictions, and the predictions of a dice roll.
A quick explanation as to how the dice roll scores were
calculated
- If rolling a 1, 2, or 3 that’s the score,
- If rolling 4 or 5 it counted as ‘nil’, and;
- Rolling a 6 meant roll again and use whatever
number comes up (so the upper limit of normal time is 6 goals but it is fairly
unlikely to come up).
So what are the
predictions?
As usual at the end of the Group Stage we will show all of
our predictions and those of the dice vs the reality. If we can find them, we will also try to
compare with any algorithm type predictions as proposed by statisticians
working for business consultancies and universities.
We cannot all get every prediction right, so we will then
try to do another set of predictions based on who actually gets out of the
Group Stages and as the knock-out rounds unfold.
But in the meantime we
had a go at predicting the entire tournament…
Random Dice Rolls…
The dice interestingly predict England to get as far as the
Round of 16 before losing 0 – 1 China
Scotland meanwhile are set to lose 1 – 0 to Jamaica in
Quarter Finals using this method of prediction.
To get there, Jamaica will surprisingly beat USA 3 – 0 in the
Round of 16, and eventually reach the final before losing to South Korea 10 – 9
after penalties
Winner: South Korea
Alex
Predicts England to finish in fourth place, losing 1-3 to
Brazil in third place play-off.
Predicts Scotland to reach the Round of 16 where they lose
1-2 to Canada.
Hosts France are predicted to knock out the USA by 2-0 in
the Quarter-Finals, and England 2-1 in the semi-finals, ultimately winning the
tournament having beaten China 2-1 in a hard fought final.
Winner: France
Kevin
England will finish in 4th place, ultimately
losing 0-2 to a strong Japanese team whom he predicts will be the surprise
package of the tournament, and will eventually finish 3rd in the
world.
To get there, Japan will graduate Group D in second place
(pipping Scotland to the post – the Scots taking 3rd place in the
Group and not progressing) then Holland 2-1 in the Round of 16. A controversial 4-1 drubbing of Brasil sees
them glide comfortably through the Quarter Finals before running out of steam
1-2 at the hands of Germany in the Semis.
Kevin believes the USA will knock-out another Womens’ soccer
superpower China in the round of 16, (2-2 after normal time and then 7-6 to USA
after penalties), then they will lose 2-3 to hosts France in the Quarter
Finals.
Kevin predicts France to ultimately reach the final, where
they will lose 0-2 to Germany.
Winner: Germany
