FIFA Women's World Cup 2019 - predictions

With the FIFA Women’s World Cup almost upon us, we decided to repeat the fun of last year’s Men’s tournament and map out three scenarios: Kevin’s predictions, Alex’s predictions, and the predictions of a dice roll.

A quick explanation as to how the dice roll scores were calculated

-        If rolling a 1, 2, or 3 that’s the score,

-        If rolling 4 or 5 it counted as ‘nil’, and;

-        Rolling a 6 meant roll again and use whatever number comes up (so the upper limit of normal time is 6 goals but it is fairly unlikely to come up).

So what are the predictions?

As usual at the end of the Group Stage we will show all of our predictions and those of the dice vs the reality.  If we can find them, we will also try to compare with any algorithm type predictions as proposed by statisticians working for business consultancies and universities.

We cannot all get every prediction right, so we will then try to do another set of predictions based on who actually gets out of the Group Stages and as the knock-out rounds unfold.

But in the meantime we had a go at predicting the entire tournament…

Random Dice Rolls…

The dice interestingly predict England to get as far as the Round of 16 before losing 0 – 1 China

Scotland meanwhile are set to lose 1 – 0 to Jamaica in Quarter Finals using this method of prediction.

To get there, Jamaica will surprisingly beat USA 3 – 0 in the Round of 16, and eventually reach the final before losing to South Korea 10 – 9 after penalties

Winner: South Korea

Alex

Predicts England to finish in fourth place, losing 1-3 to Brazil in third place play-off.

Predicts Scotland to reach the Round of 16 where they lose 1-2 to Canada.

Hosts France are predicted to knock out the USA by 2-0 in the Quarter-Finals, and England 2-1 in the semi-finals, ultimately winning the tournament having beaten China 2-1 in a hard fought final.

Winner: France

Kevin

England will finish in 4^th place, ultimately losing 0-2 to a strong Japanese team whom he predicts will be the surprise package of the tournament, and will eventually finish 3^rd in the world. 

To get there, Japan will graduate Group D in second place (pipping Scotland to the post – the Scots taking 3^rd place in the Group and not progressing) then Holland 2-1 in the Round of 16.  A controversial 4-1 drubbing of Brasil sees them glide comfortably through the Quarter Finals before running out of steam 1-2 at the hands of Germany in the Semis.

Kevin believes the USA will knock-out another Womens’ soccer superpower China in the round of 16, (2-2 after normal time and then 7-6 to USA after penalties), then they will lose 2-3 to hosts France in the Quarter Finals.

Kevin predicts France to ultimately reach the final, where they will lose 0-2 to Germany.

Winner: Germany

Grimethorpe Black Diamonds Ladies

Following our previous post commenting on the FIFA Womens' World Cup, our colleague Professor Stephen Linstead (University of York) has brought to our attention this clip from 1968 about the Grimethorpe Black Diamonds Ladies Team:

As well as providing rare archive footage of womens' football in the 1960s, the Grimethorpe Black Diamonds clip also offers insight into the relationship between industry/industrial communities and sport.   

Perhaps the most famous 'industrial' women's team were the Dick, Kerr Ladies Team which comprised munitions factory workers during WW1:

All of this is of course a long way from Canada 2015, temporally, spatially, and financially, but serves as an interesting reminder of the roots of women's football and also how far the sport has come in recent times in terms of recognition and professionalisation.  According to Reuters.com, the 2015 World Cup has seen women's football attracting a great deal of new interest from sponsors (although in 2015 this is from global sportswear brands, rather than local munitions factories and collieries!) and is considered to be an important opportunity by FIFA as a means by which to achieve their sponsorship targets.  

Given the reported funding problems and financial inequalities in the women's game, particularly in and between the teams from the CONCACAF region (Confederation of North, Central American and Caribbean Association Football) and CAF region (which encompasses African Football Associations), new money in womens' football will be well received - although the challenge will be to avoid the pitfalls associated with commercialisation of soccer and alleged financial irregularities and mis-management that have beset the men's sport in recent years.  Watch this space.