The 2026 FIFA World Cupo kicks-off TODAY, co-hosted by Canada, USA and Mexico.
In this blog post we look back at our existing published research on USA world Cups, before statibg our predictions as to who will win it and what fate has in store for the British teams and also for the co-hosting nations.
We then compare with the predictions of colleagues from some of our mathematical colleagues.
Reflections
Way back in 2018 we were asked to share our thoughts on the then newly announced 2026 FIFA World Cup for Canada-Mexico-USA, a tournament to be co-hosted across North America.
Our piece, linked here, shared our projections about organising the tournament and likely scenarios, such as for urban transport, boosterism and so on. We also reflected on the making use of existing stadiums rather than building many new stadiums from scratch for the tournament.
Relatedly, those of you who follow our academic publications may also be aware of our articles on the USA 94 edition of the FIFA World Cup:
Gillett, A.G. and Tennent, K.D., 2022. Hybrid goals: Institutional complexity and ‘legacy’in a global sporting mega-event. Public Management Review, 24(3), pp.372-397.
Tennent, K.D. and Gillett, A.G., 2020. Opportunities for all the Team: Entrepreneurship and the 1966 and 1994 Soccer World Cups. In Sport and Entrepreneurship (pp. 145-166). Routledge.
We have also very recently revised and updated our chapter 'a brief history of the world cup as a business' in the book 'The Business of the World Cup'. The first edition, which appeared in 2022 in time for the Qatar tournament, was very popular. So, were delighted to be asked to participate in a new edition to coincide with the 2026 World Cup:
Gillett, A.G. and Tennent, K.D., 2027. A Brief History of the FIFA World Cup as a Business. In The Business of the FIFA World Cup (pp. 4-24). Routledge.
Predictions
But what of the on-pitch activities? Well, as our readers know, we like to do tournament predictions and wherever possible compare to other 'expert' academics and pundits. As usual, both of us predicted results for the entire tournament and also rolled dice for a bit of fun to see if we are more accurate than random chance! Results are:
|
Name |
Winners |
Runner-up |
Third
Place |
Fourth
Place |
|
Kevin |
Brazil |
Croatia |
Netherlands |
Argentina |
|
Alex |
Brazil |
Spain |
Argentina |
France |
|
Dice |
Egypt |
Mexico |
South Africa |
France |
Alex predicts that Brazil will beat current Holders Spain by 2-1 to lift the Cup for the sixth time, but the first time since 2002. This would fit a pattern; Brazil have never waited longer than five tournaments to win it, so they are due that victory!
He predicts that England will reach the Round of 16 where they will be beaten 0-2 by Spain on their way to the Final. Meanwhile, of the British Home Nations, Scotland will progress out of the Group Stage for the first time in history, but face 2-3 defeat to Netherlands in the Round of 32.
Of the three host nations; Canada and Mexico will both finish second in their respective groups before Mexico knock-out Canada 2-0 in the Round of 32, then Mexico lose 2-3 to Netherlands in the Round o f 16. USA will win Group D before losing 1-2 to Ecuador in the Round of 32.
Kevin also sees Scotland's bravehearts losing to Netherlands in the Round of 32, but predicts a penalty shoot-out will decide that after a 1-1 draw is not settled by extra-time. England, he predicts, will lose 2-3 to Brazil in the Quarter Finals. Brazil will ultimately win the Cup, he proclaims, suggesting a 1-1 draw followed by a Brazil winning goal in extra-time.
His outlook for the co-hosts sees Canada falling at the Round of 32, losing 1-2 to Czech Republic after finshing second place in the Group. USA will win its Group , beat Iraq and Korea Republic in the knockout stages, before crashing out 0-3 to Croatia in the Quarter-Final. Mexico will win every Group stage game but exit in the Round of 16 at the hands of England.
The dice, as wild as ever, predict Egypt to play co-hosts Mexico in the Final, 3-3 after 90 minutes followed by a further 1 goal for Mexico and 5 for Egypt in the most exciting period of extra-time in the entire history of World Cups. Scotland will win Group C before losing to Netherlands in the Round of 32, whilst England will go out in the Round of 16 courtesy of a 4-5 defeat at the hands of South Africa. Other than Mexico, of the co-hosts, both Canada and USA will falter at the Group Stage.
Compare to Colleagues
The Corridor of Uncertainty is a podcast at the intersection of maths & sport, hosted by Dr Jess Hargreaves & Dr Rich Bingham, two mathematicians at the University of York. In their episode dated 9th June 2026 they calculate, using their own mathematical formula, the liklihood of each participating team winning the competition. According to their number crunching, Spain are most likely to lift the Cup, followed by Argentina, France and then England.
They also invited a special guest, Prof James Reade (Uni of Reading), who introduced his own set of figures to offer an alternative prediction: Favouring Argentina, then Spain, France and Portugal as most likely to take top honours. His prediction for England/ Fifth most likely to win.
The outcomes then are very much open to debate. What is certain is that the next few weeks will provide good opportunity for more blog posts and podcasts!
As usual we will try to update our predictions at each stage when it is know who has qualified.
Please note that the above predictions are for fun only and are not advice for betting on the outcomes of these or any football games. The authors cannot accept any liability for the performance or outcomes.
