Predicting the 2023 FIFA Womens World Cup

 

1.0      INTRODUCTION

This analysis is based on predictions for the knockout stages of the FIFA Womens 2023 World Cup Finals, which took place between 20 July  - 20 Aug 2023. The objective of this report was to have a bit of fun and to see how accurately we could predict the tournament.  Two academics (Dr Alex Gillett and Dr Kevin D Tennent, both editors of Soccermadboffins website) recorded their predictions at each stage (Group, Round of 16, Quarter-Final, Semi-Final and then Final as well as third place play-off) just prior to each stage, once the competing teams were known.

As a contrast with ‘chance’ a third set of predictions was undertaken at the same time by rolling 2x6 sided dice. A roll of 1-3 meant that was how many goals were scored, 4-5 = nil, whilst a roll of 6 meant roll again and whatever number 1-6 is the total number of goals (this was to allow for the possibility of particularly high scoring games). The idea of the third set of predictions by rolling two dice was for comparison, to see if we could perform better than random(ish) chance. We acknowledge that the six-sided dice and our own parametres somewhat limits the ‘random’ score but it gives an approximation, and it is the same method we have used for previous tournaments so it allows comparison.

We thus followed the ‘Analysis Z’ method of our previous tournament production reports, which predicted results and goals based only on actual fixtures.

Results Kevin was the best performer but Alex a very close second place, although both were less than 50% accurate, so this was not a particularly easy tournament for them to predict.

This exercise was undertaken for fun, please do not attempt to use it as informative for gambling practise!

 

2.0      FINDINGS

Firstly, we predicted the group stage, the first phase of the tournament comprising eight (8) groups, A-H. 

The groups each contained four teams and the top two finishers in each group (50%) automatically progressed to the next stage, the ‘Quarter Final’, whilst the two lowest ranked from each group (also 50%) were eliminated from the tournament.

Thereafter, knockout Stages involved teams that qualified from the Group Stages:

• Round of 16 (16 teams)
• Quarter Finals (8 teams)
• Semi-Finals (4 teams)
• Third-place playoff (2 teams)
• The Final (2 teams)

 

2.1      Group Stage

Here’s how we calculated the points, a maximum of 5 points per game were up for grabs (or 180 points overall in this stage)

·       Correct outcome: 3 points (overall)

·       Home goals: 1 pt ( overall)

·       Away goals; 1 pt ( overall)

As our dice could only roll a maximum of ‘6’ we excluded Netherlands 7 goals for vs Vietnam from the ‘away goals’ total.

According to the analysis in the table, Kevin had best overall accuracy (44%) for predicting outcome + goals.

 

Fixture	Actual Score	Alex	Kevin	Dice
New Zealand v Norway	1 - 0	1-2	1-2	2-0
Philippines v Switzerland	0 - 2	0-4	0-4	0-1
New Zealand v Philippines	0-1	3-1	1-0	0-0
Switzerland v Norway	0-0	1-2	0-2	1-1
Switzerland v New Zealand	0-0	0-1	1-1	3-1
Norway v Philippines	6-0	5-0	2-0	0-4
Australia v Ireland	1-0	3-0	2-0	6-3
Nigeria v Canada	0-0	0-2	1-3	0-3
Australia v Nigeria	2-3	2-0	1-0	0-1
Canada v Ireland	2-1	1-1	3-1	6-3
Canada v Australia	0-4	2-2	2-1	0-2
Ireland v Nigeria	0-0	2-0	1-1	2-2
Spain v Costa Rica	3-0	2-0	2-0	0-0
Zambia v Japan	0-5	0-3	0-1	0-0
Spain v Zambia	5-0	4-0	5 -0	0-0
Japan v Costa Rica	2-0	4-0	2-0	3-3
Japan v Spain	4-0	2-2	2-2	1-2
Costa Rica v Zambia	1-3	0-1	1-1	6-1
England v Haiti	1-0	5-0	4-0	2-1
Denmark v China	1-0	1-2	2-3	0-0
England v Denmark	1-0	3-1	0-0	0-3
China v Haiti	1-0	3-0	4-1	2-1
China v England	1-6	1-2	1-1	3-0
Haiti  v Denmark	0-2	0-3	0-1	1-1
USA v Vietnam	3-0	8-0	6-0	1-3
Netherlands v Portugal	1-0	2-2	2-1	0-0
USA v Netherlands	1-1	3-1	2-2	2-2
Portugal v Vietnam	2-0	4-1	3-0	2-3
Portugal v USA	0-0	0-4	1-3	0-1
Vietnam v Netherlands	0-7*	0-3	0-2	6-1
France v Jamaica	0-0	2-1	3-1	3-6
Brazil v Panama	4-0	5-0	3-0	3-0
France v Brazil	2-1	1-3	1-2	2-0
Panama v Jamaica	0-1	0-2	2-1	0-2
Panama v France	3-6	0-3	0-3	1-1
Jamaica v Brazil	0-0	0-3	1-4	3-2
Sweden v South Africa	2-1	2-0	3-0	0-2
Italy v Argentina	1-0	1-2	2-2	0-2
Sweden v Italy	5-0	2-1	4-2	2-4
Argentina v South Africa	2-2	2-0	2-0	0-3
Argentina v Sweden	0-2	2-1	0-3	2-2
South Africa v Italy	3-2	0-3	1-1	0-6
Germany v Morocco	6-0	3-0	2-0	1-5
Colombia v South Korea	2-0	2-2	3-2	5-1
Germany  v Colombia	1-2	2-1	4-2	0-1
South Korea v Morocco	0-1	2-0	2-0	1-2
South Korea v Germany	1-1	2-1	1-1	6-1
Morocco v Colombia	1-0	1-2	0-2	3-0
Outcome	144	66	78	54
Home Goals	48	18	13	9
Away Goals	47	15	15	9
Total Points	239	99 (41%)	106 (44%)	72 (30%)

Table A showing group stage results and points according to AnalysIs Z

*excludes Netherlands goals for vs Vietnam

 

 

2.2      Knockout Stages

We then predicted scores and outcomes for the Round-of-Sixteen, Quarter-Final, Semi-Final and the Final.

The scores used for purpose of this exercise are those before penalties (90 minutes + stoppage + extra time) although we included penalties too for fun, where we thought that they would happen.

Alex did best in the Round of 16 but only with a mediocre 40%, whilst Kevin could only match the random dice.

Round-of-Sixteen

	Actual Result	AG	KT	Dice
Switzerland v Spain	1-5	2v0	1v1 (4-5pens)	2v5
Japan v Norway	3-1	3v1	2v2 (4v5 pens)	4v3
Netherlands v South Africa	2-0	2v0	4v0	3v2
Sweden v USA	0-0 (5-4 pens)	2v0	2v1	3v2
England v Nigeria	0-0 (4-2 pens)	3v0	2v0	2v1
Australia v Denmark	2-0	2v1	1v3	1v3
Colombia v Jamaica	1-0	0v1	2v0	0v2
France v Morocco	4-0	2v3	1v1 (4-5pens)	1v3
Outcome (before pens)	24	9	6	9
Goals Home	8	3	1	0
Goals Away	8	4	3	1
TOTAL POINTS	40 (100%)	16 (40%)	10 (25%)	10 (25%)

Table B showing results and predictions for the Round-of-Sixteen

 

Quarter Final

Alex again proved okay with a ‘break-even’ 50%.

	Actual Result	AG	KT	Dice
Spain v Netherlands	2v1	0v2	1v4	0v0 (2v0 AET)
Japan v Sweden	1v2	1v2	2v3	1v3
Australia v France	0v0 (7v6)	0v2	1v2	1v0
England v Columbia	2v1	2v0	2v0	0v0 (0V0AET), (1V2 Pens)
Outcome	12 (100%)	6	6	3
Goals Home	4 (100%)	3	1	1
Goals Away	4 (100%)	1	0	1
TOTAL POINTS	20 (100%)	10 (50%)	7(35%)	5 (25%)

Table C showing results and predictions for the Quarter Final

 

Semi-Final

An awful round for Kevin as Alex continued to catch up with him.

	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
Spain v Sweden	2v1	0v2	1v3	3v2
Australia v England	1v3	2v3	1v1	2v1
Outcome	6 (100%)	3	0	3
Goals Home	2 (100%)	0	1	0
Goals Away	2 (100%)	1	0	0
TOTAL POINTS	10 (100%)	4 (40%)	1 (0%)	3 (30%)

Table D showing results and predictions for the Semi Final

 

 

 Third Place Play-off

 

Alex blew his chances here with a paltry 0%, whereas Kevin romped to a 100% victory. The dice did surprisingly well.

 

	Actual Result	AG	KT	Dice
Sweden v Australia	2v0	1v2	2v0	3v0
Outcome	3 (100%)	0	3	3
Goals Home	1 (100%)	0	1	0
Goals Away	1 (100%)	0	1	1
TOTAL POINTS	5 (100%)	0 (0%)	5 (100%)	4 (80%)

Table E showing results and predictions for the Round-of-Sixteen

 

Final

With all three players backing England, current champions of Europe, it was a surprise when another European team beat them.

	Actual Result	AG	KT	Dice
Spain v England	1v0	0v3	1v2 aet	0v1
Outcome	3 (100%)	0	0	0
Goals Home	1 (100%)	0	1	0
Goals Away	1 (100%)	0	0	0
TOTAL POINTS	5 (100%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	0 (0%)

Table F showing results and predictions for the Final

 

 

3.0      DISCUSSION & CONCLUSION

3.1 Summary of Predictions

Total number of games =	Alex	Kevin	Dice
Outcome (pts possible) 144 + 24 + 12 + 6 + 3 + 3 = 192	66 + 9 + 6 + 3 + 0 + 0 = 84 (44%)	78 + 6 + 6 + 0+ 3 + 0 =93 (48%)	54 + 9 + 3 + 3 +3 + 0 =72 (38%)
Goals Home (pts possible) 48 + 8 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 64	18 + 3 + 3 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 24 (38%)	13 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 18 (46%)	9 + 0 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 0 = 10 (16%)
Goals Away (pts possible) 47 + 8 + 4 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 63	15 + 4 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 0 = 21 (33%)	15 + 3 + 0 + 0 + 1 + 0 = 19 (30%)	9 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 1 + 0 = 12 ( 19%)
192+ 64 + 63 = 319 TOTAL POINTS (319 pts possible)	84 + 24 + 21 = 129 (40%)	93 + 18 + 19 = 130 (41%)	72 + 10 + 12 = 94 (29%)

Table E showing overall tournament prediction accuracy according to Analysis Z

 

From the table we see a very close gap between the two soccer mad boffins but that Kevin wins, with Alex in second place and the dice someway behind. No participant performed well (which we define as being above 50%), and the only true winner was football which proved as exciting and unpredictable as ever.

To cite this publication:

 

·       Gillett, A.G., Tennent, K.D. (2023) ‘Predicting the 2023 FIFA Womens World Cup: A report by the Soccer Mad Boffins’. 27th September 2023. Available online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2023/09/predicting-2023-fifa-womens-world-cup.html

Also in this series about predicting major international football tournament  scores:

 

·       Gillett, A.G., Tennent, K.D. (2023) ‘Predicting the 2022 FIFA World Cup: A report by the Soccer Mad Boffins’. 19th September 2023. Available online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2023/09/fifa-world-cup-2022-qatar-predictions.html

 

·       Gillett, A.G., Tennent, K.D. (2022) ‘Predicting the 2022 Women’s UEFA European Championship: A report by the Soccer Mad Boffins’. 21^st September 2022. Available online at:  http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2022/09/predicting-2022-uefa-womens-european.html

 

·       Gillett, A.G., Tennent, K.D. (2021) ‘Predicting the 2020(21) UEFA European Championship: A report by the Soccer Mad Boffins’. 21^st July 2021. Available online at:  http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2021/07/euro-20202021-predictions-how-did-we-do.html

 

·       Gillett, A.G., Tennent, K.D. and Fanning, J. (2019). ‘Predicting the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup Finals Part 2: Knockout Stages & Overall Analysis - A report by Soccer Mad Boffins’.  12th July 2019. Available online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2019/07/predicting-2019-fifa-womens-world-cup.html

 

·       Gillett, A.G., Tennent, K.D. and Fanning, J. (2019). ‘Predicting the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup Finals Group Stages: A report by Soccer Mad Boffins’.  21^st June 2019. Available online at: http:// http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-womens-world-cup-group-stage-predictions.html

 

·       Gillett, A.G., and Tennent, K.D. (2018) ‘World cup predictions: human brain, advanced statistical modelling, or completely random?’. 2^nd July 2018. Available online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2018/07/world-cup-predictions-human-brain-or.html

 

·       Gillett, A.G., and Tennent, K.D. (2018). ‘World Cup Finals Group Stages are over...how were your predictions?’ 29^th June 2018. Available online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2018/06/world-cup-finals-group-stages-are.html

 

 

Blog:

·       http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/