1.0 INTRODUCTION
This analysis is based on predictions for
the knockout stages of the FIFA Womens 2023 World Cup Finals, which took place between
20 July - 20 Aug 2023. The objective of this report was
to have a bit of fun and to see how accurately we could predict the tournament. Two academics (Dr Alex Gillett and Dr Kevin D
Tennent, both editors of Soccermadboffins website) recorded their
predictions at each stage (Group, Round of 16, Quarter-Final, Semi-Final and
then Final as well as third place play-off) just prior to each stage, once the
competing teams were known.
As a
contrast with ‘chance’ a third set of predictions was undertaken at the same
time by rolling 2x6 sided dice. A roll of 1-3 meant that was how many
goals were scored, 4-5 = nil, whilst a roll of 6 meant roll again and whatever
number 1-6 is the total number of goals (this was to allow for the possibility
of particularly high scoring games). The idea of the third set of predictions by
rolling two dice was for comparison, to see if we could perform better than
random(ish) chance. We acknowledge that the six-sided dice and our own
parametres somewhat limits the ‘random’ score but it gives an approximation,
and it is the same method we have used for previous tournaments so it allows
comparison.
We thus followed the ‘Analysis Z’ method
of our previous tournament production reports, which predicted results and
goals based only on actual fixtures.
Results Kevin was the best performer but
Alex a very close second place, although both were less than 50% accurate, so
this was not a particularly easy tournament for them to predict.
This exercise was undertaken for fun,
please do not attempt to use it as informative for gambling practise!
2.0 FINDINGS
Firstly, we predicted the group stage, the first phase of
the tournament comprising eight (8) groups, A-H.
The groups each contained four teams and the top two
finishers in each group (50%) automatically progressed to the next stage, the ‘Quarter
Final’, whilst the two lowest ranked from each group (also 50%) were eliminated
from the tournament.
Thereafter, knockout Stages involved teams that qualified
from the Group Stages:
- Round of 16 (16 teams)
- Quarter Finals (8 teams)
- Semi-Finals (4 teams)
- Third-place playoff (2 teams)
- The Final (2 teams)
2.1 Group
Stage
Here’s how we calculated the points, a
maximum of 5 points per game were up for grabs (or 180 points overall in this
stage)
·
Correct
outcome: 3 points (overall)
·
Home goals:
1 pt ( overall)
· Away goals; 1 pt ( overall)
As our dice could only roll a maximum of ‘6’ we excluded Netherlands
7 goals for vs Vietnam from the ‘away goals’ total.
According to the analysis in the table, Kevin
had best overall accuracy (44%)
for predicting outcome + goals.
|
Fixture
|
Actual Score
|
Alex
|
Kevin
|
Dice
|
|
New Zealand v Norway
|
1 - 0
|
1-2
|
1-2
|
2-0
|
|
Philippines v Switzerland
|
0 - 2
|
0-4
|
0-4
|
0-1
|
|
New Zealand v Philippines
|
0-1
|
3-1
|
1-0
|
0-0
|
|
Switzerland v Norway
|
0-0
|
1-2
|
0-2
|
1-1
|
|
Switzerland v New Zealand
|
0-0
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
|
Norway v Philippines
|
6-0
|
5-0
|
2-0
|
0-4
|
|
Australia v Ireland
|
1-0
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
6-3
|
|
Nigeria v Canada
|
0-0
|
0-2
|
1-3
|
0-3
|
|
Australia v Nigeria
|
2-3
|
2-0
|
1-0
|
0-1
|
|
Canada v Ireland
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
6-3
|
|
Canada v Australia
|
0-4
|
2-2
|
2-1
|
0-2
|
|
Ireland v Nigeria
|
0-0
|
2-0
|
1-1
|
2-2
|
|
Spain v Costa Rica
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
2-0
|
0-0
|
|
Zambia v Japan
|
0-5
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
0-0
|
|
Spain v Zambia
|
5-0
|
4-0
|
5 -0
|
0-0
|
|
Japan v Costa Rica
|
2-0
|
4-0
|
2-0
|
3-3
|
|
Japan v Spain
|
4-0
|
2-2
|
2-2
|
1-2
|
|
Costa Rica v Zambia
|
1-3
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
6-1
|
|
England v Haiti
|
1-0
|
5-0
|
4-0
|
2-1
|
|
Denmark v China
|
1-0
|
1-2
|
2-3
|
0-0
|
|
England v Denmark
|
1-0
|
3-1
|
0-0
|
0-3
|
|
China v Haiti
|
1-0
|
3-0
|
4-1
|
2-1
|
|
China v England
|
1-6
|
1-2
|
1-1
|
3-0
|
|
Haiti v Denmark
|
0-2
|
0-3
|
0-1
|
1-1
|
|
USA v Vietnam
|
3-0
|
8-0
|
6-0
|
1-3
|
|
Netherlands v Portugal
|
1-0
|
2-2
|
2-1
|
0-0
|
|
USA v Netherlands
|
1-1
|
3-1
|
2-2
|
2-2
|
|
Portugal v Vietnam
|
2-0
|
4-1
|
3-0
|
2-3
|
|
Portugal v USA
|
0-0
|
0-4
|
1-3
|
0-1
|
|
Vietnam v Netherlands
|
0-7*
|
0-3
|
0-2
|
6-1
|
|
France v Jamaica
|
0-0
|
2-1
|
3-1
|
3-6
|
|
Brazil v Panama
|
4-0
|
5-0
|
3-0
|
3-0
|
|
France v Brazil
|
2-1
|
1-3
|
1-2
|
2-0
|
|
Panama v Jamaica
|
0-1
|
0-2
|
2-1
|
0-2
|
|
Panama v France
|
3-6
|
0-3
|
0-3
|
1-1
|
|
Jamaica v Brazil
|
0-0
|
0-3
|
1-4
|
3-2
|
|
Sweden v South Africa
|
2-1
|
2-0
|
3-0
|
0-2
|
|
Italy v Argentina
|
1-0
|
1-2
|
2-2
|
0-2
|
|
Sweden v Italy
|
5-0
|
2-1
|
4-2
|
2-4
|
|
Argentina v South Africa
|
2-2
|
2-0
|
2-0
|
0-3
|
|
Argentina v Sweden
|
0-2
|
2-1
|
0-3
|
2-2
|
|
South Africa v Italy
|
3-2
|
0-3
|
1-1
|
0-6
|
|
Germany v Morocco
|
6-0
|
3-0
|
2-0
|
1-5
|
|
Colombia v South Korea
|
2-0
|
2-2
|
3-2
|
5-1
|
|
Germany v Colombia
|
1-2
|
2-1
|
4-2
|
0-1
|
|
South Korea v Morocco
|
0-1
|
2-0
|
2-0
|
1-2
|
|
South Korea v Germany
|
1-1
|
2-1
|
1-1
|
6-1
|
|
Morocco v Colombia
|
1-0
|
1-2
|
0-2
|
3-0
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Outcome
|
144
|
66
|
78
|
54
|
|
Home Goals
|
48
|
18
|
13
|
9
|
|
Away Goals
|
47
|
15
|
15
|
9
|
|
Total Points
|
239
|
99 (41%)
|
106 (44%)
|
72 (30%)
|
Table A showing group
stage results and points according to AnalysIs Z
*excludes Netherlands
goals for vs Vietnam
2.2 Knockout
Stages
We then
predicted scores and outcomes for the Round-of-Sixteen, Quarter-Final,
Semi-Final and the Final.
The scores
used for purpose of this exercise are those before penalties (90 minutes +
stoppage + extra time) although we included penalties too for fun, where we
thought that they would happen.
Alex did best in the Round of
16 but only with a mediocre 40%, whilst Kevin could only match the random dice.
Round-of-Sixteen
|
|
Actual Result
|
AG
|
KT
|
Dice
|
|
Switzerland
v Spain
|
1-5
|
2v0
|
1v1 (4-5pens)
|
2v5
|
|
Japan
v Norway
|
3-1
|
3v1
|
2v2 (4v5 pens)
|
4v3
|
|
Netherlands
v South Africa
|
2-0
|
2v0
|
4v0
|
3v2
|
|
Sweden
v USA
|
0-0
(5-4 pens)
|
2v0
|
2v1
|
3v2
|
|
England
v Nigeria
|
0-0
(4-2 pens)
|
3v0
|
2v0
|
2v1
|
|
Australia
v Denmark
|
2-0
|
2v1
|
1v3
|
1v3
|
|
Colombia
v Jamaica
|
1-0
|
0v1
|
2v0
|
0v2
|
|
France
v Morocco
|
4-0
|
2v3
|
1v1 (4-5pens)
|
1v3
|
|
Outcome (before pens)
|
24
|
9
|
6
|
9
|
|
Goals Home
|
8
|
3
|
1
|
0
|
|
Goals Away
|
8
|
4
|
3
|
1
|
|
TOTAL POINTS
|
40
(100%)
|
16
(40%)
|
10
(25%)
|
10
(25%)
|
Table B showing results
and predictions for the Round-of-Sixteen
Quarter Final
Alex again proved okay with a ‘break-even’
50%.
|
|
Actual Result
|
AG
|
KT
|
Dice
|
|
Spain
v Netherlands
|
2v1
|
0v2
|
1v4
|
0v0 (2v0 AET)
|
|
Japan
v Sweden
|
1v2
|
1v2
|
2v3
|
1v3
|
|
Australia
v France
|
0v0 (7v6)
|
0v2
|
1v2
|
1v0
|
|
England
v Columbia
|
2v1
|
2v0
|
2v0
|
0v0 (0V0AET), (1V2
Pens)
|
|
Outcome
|
12 (100%)
|
6
|
6
|
3
|
|
Goals Home
|
4 (100%)
|
3
|
1
|
1
|
|
Goals Away
|
4 (100%)
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
TOTAL POINTS
|
20 (100%)
|
10 (50%)
|
7(35%)
|
5 (25%)
|
Table C showing
results and predictions for the Quarter Final
Semi-Final
An awful round for Kevin as Alex
continued to catch up with him.
|
|
Actual
|
AG
|
KT
|
Dice
|
|
Spain v Sweden
|
2v1
|
0v2
|
1v3
|
3v2
|
|
Australia v England
|
1v3
|
2v3
|
1v1
|
2v1
|
|
Outcome
|
6 (100%)
|
3
|
0
|
3
|
|
Goals Home
|
2 (100%)
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Goals Away
|
2 (100%)
|
1
|
0
|
0
|
|
TOTAL POINTS
|
10 (100%)
|
4 (40%)
|
1 (0%)
|
3 (30%)
|
Table D showing
results and predictions for the Semi Final
Third Place
Play-off
Alex blew his
chances here with a paltry 0%, whereas Kevin romped to a 100% victory. The dice
did surprisingly well.
|
|
Actual Result
|
AG
|
KT
|
Dice
|
|
Sweden v Australia
|
2v0
|
1v2
|
2v0
|
3v0
|
|
Outcome
|
3 (100%)
|
0
|
3
|
3
|
|
Goals Home
|
1 (100%)
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Goals Away
|
1 (100%)
|
0
|
1
|
1
|
|
TOTAL POINTS
|
5 (100%)
|
0 (0%)
|
5 (100%)
|
4 (80%)
|
Table E showing
results and predictions for the Round-of-Sixteen
Final
With all three players backing
England, current champions of Europe, it was a surprise when another European
team beat them.
|
|
Actual Result
|
AG
|
KT
|
Dice
|
|
Spain v England
|
1v0
|
0v3
|
1v2
aet
|
0v1
|
|
Outcome
|
3 (100%)
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
Goals Home
|
1 (100%)
|
0
|
1
|
0
|
|
Goals Away
|
1 (100%)
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
|
TOTAL POINTS
|
5 (100%)
|
0 (0%)
|
1 (20%)
|
0 (0%)
|
Table F showing
results and predictions for the Final
3.0 DISCUSSION
& CONCLUSION
3.1 Summary of Predictions
|
Total number of games
=
|
Alex
|
Kevin
|
Dice
|
|
Outcome
(pts possible)
144 + 24 + 12 + 6 + 3
+ 3
= 192
|
66 + 9 + 6 + 3 + 0 +
0
= 84 (44%)
|
78 + 6 + 6 + 0+ 3 + 0
=93 (48%)
|
54 + 9 + 3 + 3 +3 + 0
=72 (38%)
|
|
Goals
Home (pts possible)
48 + 8 + 4
+ 2 + 1 + 1
= 64
|
18 + 3 + 3 + 0 + 0 +
0
= 24 (38%)
|
13 + 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 +
1
= 18 (46%)
|
9 + 0 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 0
= 10 (16%)
|
|
Goals
Away (pts possible)
47 + 8 +
4 + 2 + 1 + 1
= 63
|
15 + 4 + 1 + 1 + 0 +
0
= 21 (33%)
|
15 + 3 + 0 + 0 + 1 +
0
= 19 (30%)
|
9 + 1 + 1 + 0 + 1 + 0
= 12 ( 19%)
|
|
192+ 64 + 63 = 319
TOTAL POINTS
(319 pts possible)
|
84
+ 24 + 21 = 129
(40%)
|
93
+ 18 + 19 = 130
(41%)
|
72
+ 10 + 12 = 94
(29%)
|
Table E showing overall
tournament prediction accuracy according to Analysis Z
From the table we see a very close gap
between the two soccer mad boffins but that Kevin wins, with Alex in second
place and the dice someway behind. No participant performed well (which we
define as being above 50%), and the only true winner was football which proved
as exciting and unpredictable as ever.
To cite this
publication:
·
Gillett,
A.G., Tennent, K.D. (2023) ‘Predicting the 2023 FIFA
Womens World Cup: A report by the Soccer Mad Boffins’. 27th September 2023. Available online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2023/09/predicting-2023-fifa-womens-world-cup.html
Also in this series about predicting
major international football tournament
scores:
·
Gillett,
A.G., Tennent, K.D. (2023) ‘Predicting the 2022 FIFA
World Cup: A report by the Soccer Mad Boffins’. 19th September 2023. Available online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2023/09/fifa-world-cup-2022-qatar-predictions.html
·
Gillett,
A.G., Tennent, K.D. (2022) ‘Predicting the 2022
Women’s UEFA European Championship: A report by the Soccer Mad Boffins’. 21st
September 2022. Available
online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2022/09/predicting-2022-uefa-womens-european.html
·
Gillett,
A.G., Tennent, K.D. (2021) ‘Predicting the
2020(21) UEFA European Championship: A report by the Soccer Mad Boffins’. 21st
July 2021. Available
online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2021/07/euro-20202021-predictions-how-did-we-do.html
·
Gillett,
A.G., Tennent, K.D. and Fanning, J. (2019). ‘Predicting the 2019 FIFA
Women’s World Cup Finals Part 2: Knockout Stages & Overall Analysis - A
report by Soccer Mad Boffins’. 12th July
2019. Available online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2019/07/predicting-2019-fifa-womens-world-cup.html
·
Gillett,
A.G., Tennent, K.D. and Fanning, J. (2019). ‘Predicting the 2019 FIFA
Women’s World Cup Finals Group Stages: A report by Soccer Mad Boffins’. 21st June 2019. Available online
at: http:// http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2019/06/the-womens-world-cup-group-stage-predictions.html
·
Gillett,
A.G., and Tennent, K.D. (2018) ‘World cup predictions: human brain, advanced
statistical modelling, or completely random?’. 2nd July 2018.
Available online at: http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/2018/07/world-cup-predictions-human-brain-or.html
Blog:
· http://soccermadboffins.blogspot.com/
