UEFA Women's Euros 2025: Group Stages Predictions & Reflections

 GROUP STAGES

 With the Group stages now complete, we can see that Alex’s prediction that Spain will beat Germany to win the tournament, and Kevin’s that Sweden will beat Germany, are still very much alive.

However, the random dice rolls’ projection of a Netherlands v Wales final (0-3 Netherlands on penalties) has been consigned to the reject bin.

So, let’s break down how we all did, group by group. To make things interesting we have awarded a point for each correctly predicted finishing position in each group.

 

Group A

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Norway	Switzerland	Iceland	Norway
2	Switzerland	Finland	Switzerland	Finland
3	Finland	Iceland	Norway	Iceland
4	Iceland	Norway	Finland	Switzerland
Points (4 maximum)	-	0	1	1

 

Only the dice could foresee plucky Norway’s triumph in this Group. Both Alex and Kevin did not even think that they would progress. Overall, this was the trickiest Group to predict with Kevin and the dice being most accurate with 1 point out of a possible 4 (or 25%).

 

Group B

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Spain	Spain	Spain	Portugal
2	Italy	Italy	Italy	Italy
3	Belgium	Portugal	Portugal	Belgium
4	Portugal	Belgium	Belgium	Spain
Points	-	2	2	2

 

Alex and Kevin both accurately predicted the top two but got the bottom two in the wrong order. The dice picked up points for being accurate about Italy and Belgium’s outcomes but were comically wide of the mark in terms of top and bottom. However, all three predictors picked up 2 points, or 50% of what was available.

 

Group C

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	Sweden	Germany	Sweden	Poland
2	Germany	Sweden	Germany	Sweden
3	Poland	Poland	Denmark	Denmark
4	Denmark	Denmark	Poland	Germany
Points	-	2	2	0

 

AG was correct about the bottom two but got the order of the top two the wrong wat round. For Kevin, the reverse was true. Two points apiece.  The Dice had a miserable Group with zero points accumulated.

 

Group D

Place	Actual	AG	KT	Dice
1	France	France	England	Netherlands
2	England	Netherlands	France	Wales
3	Netherlands	England	Netherlands	France
4	Wales	Wales	Wales	England
Points	-	2	2	0

 

AG should have had more faith in England’s chances! But was accurately pessimistic about Wales. Both he and Kevin picked up another two points, but once again it was poor form for the dice.

 

 

Total Points

Kevin tops the leader board for correct placings with 7 points (44% accuracy). Alex was correct about a third of the time with 6 points (38% accuracy). Random chance was the weakest predictor, the dice scoring just 3 points overall (19% accuracy).

AG	KT	Dice
6 (38%)	7 (44%)	3 (19%)

 

We can of course look at this in other ways, and looking simply at who predicted the top two teams to qualify from each group, but not necessarily in what order, can be done if we award a point for each team correctly identified as progressing front the Group stages.

With four groups and the top two finishers qualifying from each, we have a maximum of 8 points up for grabs, the actual points are given with percentage accuracy in brackets, Kevin’s clairvoyance is all the more impressive and Alex scores impressively too:

 

AG	KT	Dice
6 (75%)	7 (86%)	2 (25%)

 

 

QUARTER FINALS

 We now turn our attention to the Quarter Finals, for which we made a fresh set of predictions now that we know exactly which teams will face which. We will publish more information at a later date, but suffice to say that both Alex and Kevin have England to progress to the semi-finals when they play Sweden this Thursday 17^th July at 8pm.

 

 

Please note that the predictions on this blog are for academic purposes only and should not be used to inform gambling or gambling decisions.

Women's 2025 Euros are here

It is here! The Women's Euros 2025 kicked off on week ago, on Wednesday 2nd July,  with opening defeats for both holders England and geographic neighbours, Wales.

As usual we made our own predictions, and rolled a dice for the entire tournament. This is how we each think that the Final will play out:

Alex: Germany 2 - 2 Spain, (6-7 penalties)

Kevin: Sweden 2 - 2 Germany (5-4 penalties)

Dice: Wales 0 - 0 Netherlands (0-3 penalties)

Here is how we each predict the GB teams will fare:

Alex: England - Group Stages (finish 3rd, fail to progress) / Wales - Group Stages (finish 4th, fail to progress)

Kevin: England lose in Quarter Final to Germany (2-2 normal play, 4-5 penalties / Wales - Group Stages (finish 4th, fail to progress)

Dice - England - Group Stages (finish 4th, fail to progress) / Wales - Runners Up (see above)

But how will it play out? Will 2022's hosts and champions England 'bring it home' again? Or will Spain who beat England in the final of the 2023 World Cup sustain its dominance? Will a long-shot dark horse team emerge to surprise us  - such as the dice prediction of Wales finishing Runners-Up?

Both England and Wales will play this evening, and we wish both well in their respective games.  They will face each other in a show-down on Sunday 13th July.

Please note that the above predictions are for fun only and are not advice for betting on the outcomes of these or any football games. The authors cannot  accept any liability for the performance or outcomes.

Report: York Festival of Ideas with author Daniel Gray 'The Delights of Football'

On Saturday 7th June 2025 we had the honour of hosting author Daniel Gray at the University of York's Festival of Ideas.

Daniel has been on our radar since 2018, when his book Saturday, 3pm, was recommended. It was therefore a treat to finally meet the author and to share with our audience the opportunity to hear him read.

Daniel read selected passages from three of his books, including several from his more recent 'Delights of Football' series.

Daniel's writing has drawn comparison to the artwork of Lowry, for his ability to find delight in every day life in a way that resonates with his audience.

There was something for everyone in his observations on receiving the fixture list, watching referees fall over, the smell of pies and fried onions in and around the stadium.  He paints pictures with words and even the few people in the audience who weren't fans of football enjoyed the poetic prose.

Sighted in the audience was our guest speaker from last year, Dr Tosh Warwick, who kindly photographed the event.

Photo with thank to Dr Tosh Warwick

The Soccer Mad Boffins series within the York Festival of Ideas continues to draw and sizable, enthusiastic and diverse audience. We thank everyone who attends and to the university and especially the festival organisers, in particular Joan, Naomi and Caren, who have believed in us since we began and without whom these events would not be possible.

A complete list of our Festival of Ideas appearances is included below, with links to Youtube for those which were recorded and still available to watch online. Note that this does not include appearances at other events such as York Researchers Night, at which you may also have met us:

2025 with Daniel Gray 'The Delights of Football' click here to watch

2024 with Dr Tosh Warwick 'Lost Football Grounds' click here to watch

2023 with  Dr Alexander Jackson 'Curating the World's Game: An Audience with the National Football Museum'  click here to watch

2023 with Dr Duncan Stone 'Different Class: The Untold Story of English Cricket' click here to watch

2021 with football Referee Keith Hackett 'Rules of the Game: On and Off the Pitch'

2019 with investigate journalist David Conn 'The Business of Professional Football'

2019 with football agent Daniel Geey 'Done Deal: Premier League Big Business'

2018 with former FA Chairman and Director-General of the BBC Greg Dyke on 'The Business of World Cup Football'

New UK Policy Contribution

We have had published a short report to UK Government's Public Accounts Committee 'Projects: Their Dynamic Ambience'.  The report is concerned with the considerations for project governance in public sector infrastructure/mega projects.

1. We argue there are several reasons why poor decision making and governance can happen within government major projects and programmes.
2. Some factors are unique to government projects e.g. changes in administration whereas others are shared characteristics for all large-scale projects, programmes and portfolios within any sector.
3. Projects operate in a dynamic environment and stakeholders can change over time.  It is well known stakeholders have varied levels of power and interest in projects, but we argue they also have different motives which can cause them to act in various ways.
4. There can be conflicting motives within a government project.  Private sector expertise is often brought in to fill knowledge gaps.  The conflict is that these organisations are expected to maximise shareholder value, whereas this could be seen by the public as profiteering from the public purse.
5. This can cause stakeholders to hide motives.  We believe that this creates a negative ambience within the project and consequently can cause poor decision making and governance. 
6. The power and interest of stakeholders in the project is a key concern to the project commissioning organisation.. As the motives are dynamic so are the power and interest of different stakeholders.  The long length of government programmes mean that stakeholders often change for example turnover of staff or supplier failure.  As stakeholders change, the power and interest of this group can vary.  For the purpose of this paper, we have named this the Dynamic Ambience of Projects (DAP).
7. We actively encourage all potential motives, both imagined and realised, are discussed openly and document in an annually reviewed interest register.  This register should form part of core project governance and be considered as part of the annual review that National Infrastructure and Service Transformation Authority (NISTA) undertakes on all government major projects, programmes and portfolios.

To read the report in full, please use this link.

York Festival of Ideas 2025: The Delights of Football

 

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• Saturday 7 June 2025, 3.15pm to 4.15pm
• Location: In-person only at Ron Cooke Hub, Campus East, University of York (Map)Admission:
• Free admission, booking required

Book tickets

From sportswashing to ticket prices, we hear much that is critical about modern football - but what remains magic about the game? From the beauty of floodlights to the glorious moment when a referee falls over, Daniel Gray, author of the Delights series of football books and owner of a Bootham Crescent turnstile, lyrically celebrates the simple joys of the beautiful game.

Join in the conversation at an event hosted by York’s Soccer-Mad Boffins Alex Gillett and Kevin Tennent of the University of York.

Daniel Gray is the author of the Delights series of football books, Stramash and Homage to Caledonia. For a short period in the early 1990s he was the finest left-back in his village, once marking Gordon Strachan’s youngest son (the one who didn’t become a footballer) out of the game. A Middlesbrough supporter, Daniel began attending football matches in 1988 and has never recovered. He has worked in a psychiatric hospital, a library and in television and politics.

Soccer-Mad Boffins' Field Trip to Millwall FC

On Saturday 15th March we attended Millwall’s Community Day centred around a Saturday league game against Stoke City, on the invitation of the club's Community Trust Safeguarding and EDI Lead, and Women's Team General Manager Jason Vincent. Various employers and agencies from public and private sector attended with stalls and fundraising, and a community football tournament involving men’s, women’s, boys and girls teams took place in the morning. A safe atmosphere was maintained in and around the stadium with a carnival feel, and at half time a procession took place around the stadium showcasing the club’s women’s and community teams. Some of the employability workers that we spoke to reported a better uptake in engaging with vocational training by involving the club than through the job centre – it was clear that these programmes run jointly with the Department for Work and Pensions and the Greater London Authority were very successful. The Lions triumphed with a last gasp penalty in the 90th minute winning 1-0 after a tense game.

Latest Publication: Explicating archival ethnography: Helmut Käser’s business trip.

We are proud to report our latest published research, which appears in a forthcoming Special Issue on the topic of 'Micro History' in the journal  Management & Organizational History.

Using a scrapbook collated by FIFA football administrator Helmut Kaser, we explore an interesting adventure in his working life and add something on the literature of research methods.

Here is the abstract for the paper, the full article can be found here

Archival ethnography using microhistorical approaches has considerable untapped potential as a research approach in management and business history. We use a scrapbook compiled by the mid-twentieth century football administrator Dr Helmut Käser on a business trip to Northern Ireland and London in 1967 to illustrate the ethnographic potential of the emic perspective for narrating microhistorical cases. The scrapbook demonstrates Käser’s interaction with several contexts which have been understood very separately by historians on his journey and we illustrate how this rare window into business travel in the 1960s helps us to understand how they coexisted and were experienced by actors themselves embedded in global organizations. We can therefore ethnographically experience the world of the past through collections of documents and abstracts which at first might appear ephemeral. We conclude that archival ethnography based on microhistorical approaches has the potential to be a fruitful new avenue of research for management and business historians.

Helmut Kaser: FIFA Administrator