Written Evidence for DCMS Committee Inquiry on Major Cultural and Sporting Events

We have had a short report included within the Digital, Media, Culture and Sport Committee's inquiry on major cultural and sporting events.

In the report we provide evidence based on our extensive research of global sporting mega-events such as the Olympic Games and the FIFA World Cup, and England's (as well as UK's broader) experience as hosts.

Our particular report can be downloaded as a pdf file here or viewed as html here

We are thrilled to have been included within the small group of experts whose reports were chosen to be included within the evidence base.

The inquiry examines the role of major cultural and sporting events in celebrating the UK’s national identity. Several events of international importance are due to be hosted in the UK in 2022, prompting this inquiry by MPs. 

The inquiry considers the challenges in the road ahead to the Festival UK* 2022, the start of the FIFA World Cup 2030 bidding process and the Commonwealth Games, among others. 

A key focus will be how the Government is using these events as opportunities to define what the UK means to both its citizens and the rest of the world. 

The Committee sought views on what is needed for these events to bring together the people and values of all four nations of the UK and the kind of impact they should aim to achieve. 

York Festival of Ideas 2021: The Soccer Mad Boffins & Keith Hackett

We at SOCCERMADBOFFINS were delighted to participate again in the University of York Festival of Ideas.

Firstly, we hosted an online "ask the experts" session about 'The business of professional football' with the recent aborted idea of a European Super League the liveliest subject. We received many great questions and it was even suggested to us that we could take the event on tour!

Our main contribution, and one of THE key events of the entire festival, was hosting a presentation and conversation session with former high-profile FIFA listed football referee Keith Hackett about football's historic roots in Yorkshire, the evolution of the laws of the game, and personal reflections on his career and on football refereeing today.

The event with Keith entitled "Rules of the Game: On and off the pitch" is now available on YouTube, and can be viewed below.

Towards the end of the session we had so many questions from the audience that we ran out of time to include them all. Keith very kindly agreed to answer each question via email and that is included below the video (if it says 'video unavailable' just click on black box and it will direct you straight to it on Youtube):

Extra Q&A Questions:

We are rated as a very vocal group of fans and as such put a huge amount of pressure on referees so are there any plans to improve mental health in referees not just physical health?

KH: "When I took over the management of the Professional Game Match Officials Ltd, I introduced top Sports Psychologist Prof Craig Mahoney. He was superb working with the group of professional referees in group and face to face individual sessions. 

He sat in the Technical Area at some of the games in order to get a clear understanding of the pressures on match officials.  He looked at how he could help with reducing the pressure on match officials. One aspect was stadium familiarity so we appointed new officials onto the list to fourth official duty before sending them to referee.

He improved their interpersonal and communication skills. Body language and enhancing their ‘presence’ on the field of play.  Goal and target setting, keeping a diary and many other aspects, Prof Ian Maynard from Sheffield Hallam University then took over the role."

Referees never stop during a game, what is the physical training like? Do they train as players to keep up?

KH: "Referees in a Premier League game will on average cover a distance of 11500 meters in a game. A minimum of 1000 meters is at a speed of 7 meters per second. 

I employed two full time Sports Scientist. The first was Prof Matt Weston who embarked on a strategy of creating a lifestyle change in our match officials. He would issue various training schedules usually four a week taking into account games over the weekend and mid-week. High intensity, Recovery, etc. We also introduced pre-game warm ups for referees in order to avoid injury.  The second Sports Scientist would concentrate on CORE again to reduce injuries.

Incidentally I provided match officials with Polar Heart Monitors so that each of these training sessions was recorded and then downloaded after each session to the Sports Scientist.

Prozone recorded the movement profiles of the referees and I showed that slide in my presentation."

What have been the most physically challenging games that you have been involved with?

KH: "In the early eighties I was appointed to the FIFA U23 World Cup which tool place in Mexico. 

I officiated in Guadalajara USA V Russia, In Lyon. Holland V Brazil and at 5000 – 7000 feet above sea level 

These games were physically demanding. We were amateur referees with no guidance on the appropriate training sessions etc.

I also officiated many FA Challenge cup semi finals which were usually played at high intensity speed levels,

Many physical encounters including the Battle of Old Trafford where a twenty one men brawl took place. Both teams were deducted points the first and only time that this has happened.

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With a very high pitvhed whistle been used by a traffic cop. This event took place on Day 2 of the UEFA Euro Championship. Having officiated in the opening fixture of the Euros yourself, what are your memories, what does the pressure feel like and how did you prepare?

I was appointed to the opening game of Euro 88 West Germany v Italy and flew into Dusseldorf with my two linesmen (Asst Refs) both FIFA International referees Neil Midgley and Brian Hill, Our preparation was to officiate three Football League games together. We then flew into Dusseldorf two days before the game, officiated the match and then returned home.

No training camps, no debate on our perforances. We also were made aware that we would only be officiating one game.

Danny Makkelie the 2020 opening game Italy v Turkey referee will have attended several training camps and along with eighteen other referees and twenty two VAR operators are based in Nyon, Geneva, they will be reviewing games, and been trained daily with the aid of Sports Scientists."

Have you ever lost the pea from your whistle?

KH: "I started off using an ACME THUNDERER WHISTLE but prior to officiating Inter Milan I was doing some sight seeing in the City centre and was taken aback with a very high pitched whistle that she was using. I made enquires and learned that it was an Italian Balilla whistle we then approached the officer in the centre of the road and my interpreter arranged for me to acquire one after he visited the local police station.I used this for the rest of my career.

Most Premier League referees now use a pealess FOX 40."

You spent some time officiating in the NASL. The NASL is known for having introduced some 'local' laws and presentational aspects to the game. These appear to have been partly down to practical situation (i.e., playing on narrow fields originally designed for American Football) and some to do with the expectations of the US sports consumer and advertisers, i.e., not keen on the idea of a 0-0 draw. What are your memories and reflections of that time? 

KH: "In 1981 I was invited to referee on the NORTH AMERICAN SOCCER LEAGUE which I readily accepted knowing that the experience of refereeing 24 games in an eight-week period would accelerate my career.

My base was the famous Waldorf Astoria, New York City but within hours of landing and securing my green ticket I was handed a folder full of airline tickets: Tampa Bay Rowdies (Florida) Vancouver Whitecaps, New York Cosmos, Tulsa, Portland, San Jose, Chicago Sting were posted on the roster of the first sheet.

My referees kit was provided and typical of American sport on the back I had the number 8, Guest Referee, my first game was Rowdies v Fort Lauderdale. I was driven onto the field in a Police car and the speakers announced has I got out of the car that I was Guest Referee Keeeeeeith Haaaackett all the way from England.  I gave a wave and then stood at the centre of the field whilst both teams were introduced one by one as, they ran out onto the pitch. It went something like, “Playing number 10, with 15 goals and three Assists we have former England International and Rowdies favourite player Rodney Marsh." I had received instructions that during each half I had to arrange two one-minute stoppages so that television could play appropriate ad breaks. I learned quickly that when I was going to apply a stoppage I would run to a player on the ground and instruct him to stay on the ground, calling for the Physio to come on and treat. With my arms above my head a would cross them to inform the independent timekeeper to stop the clock for 60 seconds.  After the 60 seconds the television crew standing at the side of the pitch would give me the signal to say the 60 seconds was up. A strong whistle then got the game underway.

Some of the games were played in Baseball and American Football Stadiums with Chicago’s Wrigley Field and New York Cosmo Giants Stadium remembered with fondness.

I had different pieces of law that the Americans applied to their competition which were not supported by FIFA:

OFFSIDE

The penalty area front line was extended across to each touchline and offside could only be flagged in that part of the field of play.  I remain supportive of that because there appeared to be less offside decisions and more excitement has wingers often gained possession of the ball inside their own half of the field of play and made dashing runs down the wings.

PENALTY SHOOT OUT TO DETERMINE THE WINNER OF THE MATCH

The field markings had a line in each half 35 yards away from the goal line. A countdown clock would be positioned close to the starting point of the player taking the penalty kick, The goalkeeper was positioned on the goal line. When I blew the whistle the attacker started to run with the ball. The goalkeeper could now run off his line to defend his goal or even make a challenge for the ball. The player taking the kick had to get his shot off within 5 seconds. Interestingly I loved it and of course no game could end in a draw. When the MLS was formed they operated the same shoot out procedure but later withdrew it

There were of course a variety of International players from Europe and South America across most of the teams, I recall on one game heading for Giants Stadium stuck in traffic in Lincoln Tunnel. The cab driver recognised someone who was running with a pair of soccer boots in his hands. He wound down the window and shouted for the runner to get in the cab. It was Carlos Alberto the Brazil team captain who a few years earlier had lifted the famous World Cup Trophy. The cab driver explained that I was the ref for the game.

We shook hands, smiled and with a couple of hundred yards to get to the Stadium entrance I jumped out of the cab and walked the rest of the way. 

In that game I produced an early yellow card to the Cosmo number nine who responded by shouting and standing like a Toreador, “Do you know who I am, no I said, but I do need your name, I am the famous GEORGIO CHINAGLIA.” He was not happy and uttered a few swear words has he walked away. 

After the game he came to my dressing room and I was expecting him to have a go at me. To my amazement he asked if I would give him my yellow card. I handed it over and he shouted “You crazy Englishmen, no one shows Georgio a yellow card. Playing that day alongside Carlos Alberto was Franz Beckenbaur and Julio Cesar Romero. Paraguay International.."

Thank you Keith for giving the talk and for taking the time to answer these questions

Euro 2021: Great Brits' Second Fixtures

Another week and another set of results for our Home Nations heroes!

Wales has now fulfilled three fixtures and qualified for the Round of 16. Well done Bale & Co. 

Their progress was though predicted by the dice. More about that next time when we consider the final group rankings.

For now it is enough to say that our random dice roles "knew" the welsh would beat Turkey, although not the exact scoreline. Which is more than can be said of us, as we were not so optimistic, predicting a draw at best.

The biggest game of the weekend for us was England v Scotland.  Yes we know that there were many big games, not least Germany v Portugal, but from a soccermadboffins perspective it was the game at Wembley that was most anticipated.

Alex thought it would be an end-to-end thriller of guts and glory, with England eventually winning 3-2.  Kevin was a little more conservative, believing that England would scrape past the Scots 1-0 (perhaps a Harry Kane penalty?). The dice called it at 0-2 to the Scots!  

The reality was 0-0 but the game was far from boring. Some great passing moves and several chances on goal for both sides made it an edge-of-the-seat emotional rollercoaster. But one thing was apparent: If Harry Kane is marked out of the game or deprived of service, then there are no prolific strikers in either country at this level. Perhaps an indicator of the reliance on imported talent in the Premier League? 

Finally, on Sunday afternoon Italy beat Wales by 1-0, although the welsh were down to ten men for a  portion of the game, so it really wasn't a bad result, although a win would have been a nice Fathers Day gift for some!

How did we do with this one? Well Kevin was bang on with his prediction, whilst Alex got the outcome right, but not the exact score.  The dice were wrong about everything.

Full details are provided in the table below which compares the actual results with our predictions.

More coming soon, including a round-up of the remaining Group Stage scores, as well as final Group rankings, and our predictions. How closely did we call it? Tune in next time to find out!

Euro 2021: Great Brits' First Fixtures

What a few days! All three of the GB teams that qualified for the Euros have now played their first fixtures.  

As reported previously, we are once again running our predictions vs those of a dice throw.  So far the only actual correct prediction was Alex who fortold of Wales' 1-1 draw with Switzerland.

Today saw a valiant Scotland lose 0-2 to the Czech Republic, a result that did not live up to either or our optimistic predictions, nor those of the dice.

Football took one step towards home yesterday when England scraped past Croatia by a goal to nil.  Neither Alex nor Kevin had seen that coming, perhaps bearing in mind the last time that these two met in a major tournament, and/or England's usual stuttering start in these things.  The dice showed most confidence calling it 3-0 to England and although the scoreline was far more conservative, all points did go England's way.

When we look at goals scored things do look more accurate: Alex, Kevin and the dice all predicted that Wales would find the back of the net once. Alex and Kevin also both knew that England were good for a goal against Croatia, and the dice somehow knew that the Croats would fail to score. Kevin was most realistic about Scotland's finishing, whilst the dice cannily 'knew' that the Czech's would put two past them.

More updates coming soon. We'll try to report back regularly in relation to the three 'Home' nations involved as well as the usual Group Stage summary and Final Report once the tournament has drawn to a close. 

So, watch this space!

Euro 2020 (in 2021!) Predictions

With the covid-delayed Euro 2020 now finally just a few days away, we decided to follow soccermadboffins tradition and map out three scenarios: Kevin’s predictions, Alex’s predictions, and the predictions of a dice roll.

A quick explanation as to how the dice roll scores were calculated

-        If rolling a 1, 2, or 3 that’s the score, 

-        If rolling 4 or 5 it counted as ‘nil’, and;

-        Rolling a 6 meant roll again and use whatever number comes up (so the upper limit of normal time is 6 goals but it is fairly unlikely to come up).

So what are the predictions?

As usual at the end of the Group Stage we will show all of our predictions and those of the dice vs the reality.  If we can find them, after the group stages we will also try to compare with any algorithm type predictions as proposed by statisticians working for business consultancies and universities.

We cannot all get every prediction right, so we will then try to do another set of predictions based on who actually gets out of the Group Stages and as the knock-out rounds unfold.

But in the meantime we had a go at predicting the entire tournament…

Random Dice Rolls…

The dice interestingly predict England to finish 3rd in their group, behind Scotland and Czech Republic, then face North Macedonia in Budapest for a crunch Round of 16 fixture...which North Macedomia win 5-3 after extra time!

Also in the Round of 16 Scotland lose 2-3 to Germany in Dublin. 

Wales finish third in Group A behind Switzerland and Italy, progressing to a showdown with France in the Round of 16, winning 3-2 to become the Great British hope before folding to a 0-6 defeat by the Czech Republic in the Quarter-Finals.

Surprise breakout teams will include Finland, who will reach the semi-final. Also....

Winner: Austria to convincingly beat Hungary 5-1, to lift the trophy!

Austrian team celebrating...a realistic prediction for this year's Euros?

Alex

Predicts England to finish second in their Group, before crashing out to Sweden after a penalty shoot-out in the Round of 16.

Predicts Scotland to finish in third place in their group, just behind England, to reach the Round of 16 where they lose to the Netherlands 1-2 after extra-time.

Predicted Wales to achieve just 1 point to finish third in their group and fail to qualify for the Round of 16.

Winners: Germany to beat Portugal in a close final.

Germany is used to celebrating...could it be deja vu in 2021 and is it starting to get boring yet?

Kevin

England will win Group D before meeting France in the Round of 16, who will beat them on penalties.

Scotland will finish bottom of Group D and fail to progress.

Wales are to be Great Britiain's best hope, finishing as runners-up in Group A just behind Italy, then beating Denmark on penalties in the Round fo 16, before losing 1-2 to Portugal in the Quarter-Final. 

Winner: Belgium to beat France, also in a close final.

Could the Euros bring some excitement to Belgium?

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Check back soon for progress reports on how our predictions (and those fo the dice) fare against reality! (and against statistical modellers such as at Economics Observatory).

Remember, these predictions are for fun only please do not use them as the basis for any gambling decisions!

The big kick-off is this Friday when Turkey play Italy. Wales play Switzerland on Saturday, England kick-off their campaign v Croatia on Sunday, and then Scotland line-up against the Czech Republic on Monday. 

To celebrate, we have a free online public lecture and Q&A with former FIFA-listed referee Keith Hackett. It will take place this Saturday 12th June starting at 2.30pm prompt. It will last for one hour and tickets are completely free, for more info and to book your place please click here.