GROUP STAGES
With the Group stages now complete, we can see that Alex’s
prediction that Spain will beat Germany to win the tournament, and Kevin’s that
Sweden will beat Germany, are still very much alive.
However, the random dice rolls’ projection of a Netherlands
v Wales final (0-3 Netherlands on penalties) has been consigned to the reject
bin.
So, let’s break down how we all did, group by group. To make
things interesting we have awarded a point for each correctly predicted finishing
position in each group.
Group A
Place | Actual | AG | KT | Dice |
1 | Norway | Switzerland | Iceland | Norway |
2 | Switzerland | Finland | Switzerland | Finland |
3 | Finland | Iceland | Norway | Iceland |
4 | Iceland | Norway | Finland | Switzerland |
Points (4
maximum) | -
| 0 | 1 | 1 |
Only the dice could foresee plucky Norway’s triumph in this
Group. Both Alex and Kevin did not even think that they would progress.
Overall, this was the trickiest Group to predict with Kevin and the dice being
most accurate with 1 point out of a possible 4 (or 25%).
Group B
Place
|
Actual
|
AG
|
KT
|
Dice
|
1
|
Spain
|
Spain
|
Spain
|
Portugal
|
2
|
Italy
|
Italy
|
Italy
|
Italy
|
3
|
Belgium
|
Portugal
|
Portugal
|
Belgium
|
4
|
Portugal
|
Belgium
|
Belgium
|
Spain
|
Points
|
-
|
2
|
2
|
2
|
Alex and Kevin both accurately predicted the top two but got
the bottom two in the wrong order. The dice picked up points for being accurate
about Italy and Belgium’s outcomes but were comically wide of the mark in terms
of top and bottom. However, all three predictors picked up 2 points, or 50% of
what was available.
Group C
Place
|
Actual
|
AG
|
KT
|
Dice
|
1
|
Sweden
|
Germany
|
Sweden
|
Poland
|
2
|
Germany
|
Sweden
|
Germany
|
Sweden
|
3
|
Poland
|
Poland
|
Denmark
|
Denmark
|
4
|
Denmark
|
Denmark
|
Poland
|
Germany
|
Points
|
-
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
AG was correct about the bottom two but got the order of the
top two the wrong wat round. For Kevin, the reverse was true. Two points
apiece. The Dice had a miserable Group
with zero points accumulated.
Group D
Place
|
Actual
|
AG
|
KT
|
Dice
|
1
|
France
|
France
|
England
|
Netherlands
|
2
|
England
|
Netherlands
|
France
|
Wales
|
3
|
Netherlands
|
England
|
Netherlands
|
France
|
4
|
Wales
|
Wales
|
Wales
|
England
|
Points
|
-
|
2
|
2
|
0
|
AG should have had more faith in England’s chances! But was
accurately pessimistic about Wales. Both he and Kevin picked up another two
points, but once again it was poor form for the dice.
Total Points
Kevin tops the leader board for correct placings with 7
points (44% accuracy). Alex was correct about a third of the time with 6 points
(38% accuracy). Random chance was the weakest predictor, the dice scoring just
3 points overall (19% accuracy).
AG
|
KT
|
Dice
|
6 (38%)
|
7 (44%)
|
3 (19%)
|
We can of course look at this in other ways, and looking simply
at who predicted the top two teams to qualify from each group, but not necessarily
in what order, can be done if we award a point for each team correctly identified
as progressing front the Group stages.
With four groups and the top two finishers qualifying from
each, we have a maximum of 8 points up for grabs, the actual points are given
with percentage accuracy in brackets, Kevin’s clairvoyance is all the more
impressive and Alex scores impressively too:
AG
|
KT
|
Dice
|
6 (75%)
|
7 (86%)
|
2 (25%)
|
QUARTER FINALS
We now turn our attention to the Quarter Finals, for which
we made a fresh set of predictions now that we know exactly which teams will face
which. We will publish more information at a later date, but suffice to say
that both Alex and Kevin have England to progress to the semi-finals when they
play Sweden this Thursday 17th July at 8pm.
Please note that the predictions on this blog are for academic
purposes only and should not be used to inform gambling or gambling decisions.